zh-cn	削弱影响和艰难的选择：中国的早期经验 
en-us	Blunting the Impact and Hard Choices: Early Lessons from China 

zh-cn	本篇文章是关于应对冠状病毒的特别系列博客文章之一  
en-us	This blog is part of a series providing regional analysis on the effects of the coronavirus.  

zh-cn	冠状病毒的扩散正在对全球经济产生深远和严重的影响，这促使政策制定者寻找应对之策。
en-us	The impact of the coronavirus is having a profound and serious impact on the global economy and has sent policymakers looking for ways to respond. 

zh-cn	中国截至目前的经验表明，正确的政策能对抗击疫情和缓解其影响发挥重要作用，但部分政策伴随着艰难的经济权衡。  
en-us	China’s experience so far shows that the right policies make a difference in fighting the disease and mitigating its impact—but some of these policies come with difficult economic tradeoffs. 

zh-cn	艰难的选择 
en-us	Hard choices 

zh-cn	成功控制病毒的代价是经济活动放缓，不管保持社交距离和减少出行是自愿还是强制的。
en-us	Success in containing the virus comes at the price of slowing economic activity, no matter whether social distancing and reduced mobility are voluntary or enforced. 

zh-cn	在中国，政策制定者在国家和地方层面都实施了严格的出行限制——例如，在疫情爆发最严重时期，很多城市对公民实施了严格的宵禁。
en-us	In China’s case, policymakers implemented strict mobility constraints, both at the national and local level—for example, at the height of the outbreak, many cities enforced strict curfews on their citizens. 

zh-cn	然而，这种权衡对湖北省最具破坏性，尽管中国其他省份提供了很多援助，但湖北省为减缓疾病在全国的传播仍付出了沉重的代价。
en-us	But the tradeoff was nowhere as devastating as in Hubei province, which, despite much help from the rest of China, suffered heavily while helping to slow down the spread of the disease across the nation. 

zh-cn	这清楚地表明，随着流行病蔓延到全世界，受影响最严重的地区——不论是在国内还是跨境——都需要得到支持，以控制病毒并延缓其向他国的传播。 
en-us	Mitigating the impact of this severe shock requires providing support to the most vulnerable. This makes it clear that, as the pandemic takes hold across the world, those hit the hardest—within countries but also across countries—will need support to help contain the virus and delay its spread to others.  

zh-cn	高昂的成本 
en-us	High costs  

zh-cn	与在其他国家继续爆发一样，此次疫情给中国带来了严重的人员灾难，也带来了巨大的经济损失。
en-us	The outbreak brought terrible human suffering in China, as it is continuing to do elsewhere, along with significant economic costs. 

zh-cn	所有迹象均表明，中国2020年一季度的经济增速将出现大幅放缓，且将对全年造成重大影响。  
en-us	By all indications, China’s slowdown in the first quarter of 2020 will be significant and will leave a deep mark for the year.  

zh-cn	最初是经济活动的一系列骤停，迅速波及整个国民经济，并演变成一场全面的冲击，同时阻碍了供给和需求——正如1-2月非常疲弱的工业生产和零售数据所示。
en-us	What started as a series of sudden stops in economic activity, quickly cascaded through the economy and morphed into a full-blown shock simultaneously impeding supply and demand—as visible in the very weak January-February readings of industrial production and retail sales. 

zh-cn	相比2007-2008年的全球金融危机，冠状病毒的冲击更加严重，因为它同时打击了家庭、公司、金融机构和市场——中国首先受创，目前已扩展至全球。 
en-us	The coronavirus shock is severe even compared to the Great Financial Crisis in 2007–08, as it hit households, businesses, financial institutions, and markets all at the same time—first in China and now globally.  

zh-cn	迅速行动 
en-us	Quick action 

zh-cn	减缓这一严重冲击的影响需要为最脆弱的群体提供支持。
en-us	Mitigating the impact of this severe shock requires providing support to the most vulnerable. 

zh-cn	中国的政策制定者侧重于脆弱的家庭，并探寻新方法来支持小型公司——例如免征社保缴费和公共事业费，并通过金融科技公司提供信贷。
en-us	Chinese policymakers have targeted vulnerable households and looked for new ways to reach smaller firms—for example, by waiving social security fees, utility bills, and channeling credit through fintech firms. 

zh-cn	其他政策也能发挥作用。
en-us	Other policies can also help. 

zh-cn	当局迅速安排了补贴信贷，为卫生设备增产和扩大应对疫情爆发的其他关键活动提供支持。  
en-us	The authorities quickly arranged subsidized credit to support scaling up the production of health equipment and other critical activities involved in the outbreak response.  

zh-cn	维护金融稳定需要果断和妥善沟通的行动。
en-us	Safeguarding financial stability requires assertive and well-communicated action. 

zh-cn	过去几周的情况显示，一场卫生危机（尽管是暂时的）会如何转变成一场经济冲击，其中流动性短缺和市场混乱可能会扩大并延续下去。
en-us	The past weeks have shown how a health crisis, however temporary, can turn into an economic shock where liquidity shortages and market disruptions can amplify and perpetuate. 

zh-cn	中国当局很早就介入，支持银行间市场，为承压的公司提供资金支持，同时允许人民币根据外部压力进行调整。
en-us	In China, the authorities stepped in early to backstop interbank markets and provide financial support to firms under pressure, while letting the renminbi adjust to external pressures. 

zh-cn	其他措施包括，引导银行与受疫情影响的借款者合作，激励银行通过中国央行的特别融资向小企业贷款，并对银行进行定向降准。
en-us	Among other measures, this included guiding banks to work with borrowers affected by the outbreak; incentivizing banks to lend to smaller firms via special funding from China’s central bank; and providing targeted cuts to reserve requirements for banks. 

zh-cn	在此期间，大型企业（包括国有企业）能获得相对稳定的信贷——这在很大程度上是因为中国的大型国有银行继续慷慨地为其放贷。  
en-us	Larger firms, including state-owned enterprises, enjoyed relatively stable credit access throughout—in large part because China’s large state banks continued to lend generously to them.  

zh-cn	当然，一些缓释工具自身也存在问题。
en-us	Of course, some of the relief tools come with their own problems. 

zh-cn	例如，当局为广泛的债务人延长了履行资金义务的期限，若该举措没有针对性和时间限制，未来可能削弱金融稳健性；补贴信贷可能被错配；让已经不具有生存能力的企业维持运转可能会在以后抑制生产率的增长。
en-us	For example, allowing a broad range of debtors more time to meet their financial obligations can undermine financial soundness later on if it is not aimed at the problem at hand and time-limited; subsidized credit can be misallocated; and keeping already non-viable firms alive could hold back productivity growth later. 

zh-cn	显然，在必要情况下使用针对性较强的工具是理想的做法。 
en-us	Clearly, wherever possible, using well-targeted instruments is the way to go. 

zh-cn	尚未结束 
en-us	Not over 

zh-cn	虽然中国经济出现了令人安心的正常化迹象——多数大型企业已报告重新开工，很多当地员工也已返岗——但严峻的风险依然存在。
en-us	While there are reassuring signs of economic normalization in China—most larger firms have reported reopening their doors and many local employees are back at their jobs—stark risks remain. 

zh-cn	这包括，国内和国际出行恢复可能导致新感染病例再度增加。
en-us	This includes new infections rising again as national and international travel resumes. 

zh-cn	即使中国不出现新一轮爆发，当前的流行病正引发经济风险。
en-us	Even in the absence of another outbreak in China, the ongoing pandemic is creating economic risks. 

zh-cn	例如，随着更多国家面临疫情爆发、全球金融市场波动，消费者和企业可能保持谨慎，在中国经济恢复运转之际，这将抑制全球对中国商品的需求。
en-us	For example, as more countries face outbreaks and global financial markets gyrate, consumers and firms may remain wary, depressing global demand for Chinese goods just as the economy is getting back to work. 

zh-cn	因此，中国的政策制定者将必须做好准备，在必要情况下为经济增长和金融稳定提供支持。
en-us	Therefore, Chinese policymakers will have to be ready to support growth and financial stability if needed. 

zh-cn	考虑到疫情爆发的全球性，上述很多措施若能进行国际协调将取得最大成效。 
en-us	Given the global nature of the outbreak, many of these efforts will be most effective if coordinated 