en-us	Everything is connected. 
zh-cn	世间万物，息息相关。 

en-us	Using the theory of chaos, when a butterfly flaps its wings in New Mexico it has the power to cause a hurricane in China. 
zh-cn	借用混沌理论的说法，一只蝴蝶在新墨西哥州煽动翅膀，可能在中国引起一场龙卷风。

en-us	But there’s hardly anything of the butterfly effect’s randomness in the dominos that keep falling after the emergence of COVID-19 (coronavirus). 
zh-cn	但是，在新冠肺炎（冠状病毒）出现后，在几乎没有任何蝴蝶效应的随机性的情况下，多米诺骨牌连续不断地倒下。

en-us	The explanation that is emerging is in fact more familiar: how human beings’ connected actions can result in dramatic consequences. 
zh-cn	实际上，出现的解释更为人所熟知：与人类相关的行动可能导致严重的后果。 

en-us	Wildlife and emerging infectious diseases  
zh-cn	野生动物与新发传染病 

en-us	Although the science is not yet conclusive, one thing seems beyond doubt: the SARS-CoV-2 originated in wildlife, from where the virus managed to break the species barrier into humans. 
zh-cn	尽管科学尚无定论，但有一件事似乎毋庸置疑：起源于野生动物的新型冠状病毒设法突破了物种屏障，传播给了人类。

en-us	A species of Horseshoe Bat is currently the principal suspect. 
zh-cn	马蹄蝠目前是主要嫌疑犯。

en-us	The bat likely transmitted the virus to an intermediary host, with an early theory pointing at pangolins, the scaly anteater illegally traded for their meat and scales which are then used for their apparent medicinal value. 
zh-cn	蝙蝠可能将病毒传播给一个中间宿主，早期的理论指向穿山甲，这种披着鳞甲的食蚁动物的肉和鳞片被非法交易，其鳞片被认为有明显的药用价值。

en-us	Human contact with the intermediary host, facilitated the final leap of the pathogen, causing a pandemic which, at the time of writing has spread to over 140 countries, infecting more than 150,000 people and causing innumerable losses. 
zh-cn	人类与中间宿主的接触促进了病原体的最后一跃，导致了一场大流行。在我撰写本文时，大流行已蔓延到140多个国家，感染人数超过15万，造成了难以估量的损失。 

en-us	Facilitating the emergence of new, deadly pathogens  
zh-cn	促进新的致命病原体出现的因素 

en-us	The origin and pathway of the coronavirus pandemic shouldn’t surprise us. 
zh-cn	冠状病毒大流行的起源和途径不应令我们感到惊讶。 

en-us	The SARS epidemic in 2003 jumped to humans from civet cats, sold in markets as pets and as a delicacy. 
zh-cn	2003年的非典疫情由果子狸传播给人类，果子狸在市场上作为宠物和美味佳肴被出售。 

en-us	MERS was transmitted to humans from camels in 2012. 
zh-cn	2012年的中东呼吸综合症由骆驼传播给人类。

en-us	Avian influenza, Nipah virus, Ebola, HIV... all of these and many other Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) originated in animals and were transmitted to humans – a phenomenon called zoonosis. 
zh-cn	禽流感、尼帕病毒、埃博拉、艾滋病毒......所有这些以及许多其他新发传染病都起源于动物并传播给人类，这种现象被称为人畜共患疾病。

en-us	In fact, it’s estimated that over 60% of all EID events worldwide are zoonoses, and within the zoonosis, the great majority (over 70%) originate in wildlife. 
zh-cn	实际上，据估计全世界新发传染病事件中有60％以上是人畜共患疾病，其中绝大部分（超过70%）起源于野生动物。 

en-us	As the coronavirus outbreak shows, zoonoses originating from wildlife pose huge public health, biosafety and even global security risks. 
zh-cn	正如冠状病毒疫情爆发所表明，源自野生动物的人畜共患疾病构成了巨大的公共卫生、生物安全乃至全球安全风险。 

en-us	The potential Pangolin Effect denotes the unavoidable, disproportionate ending of an avoidable, relatively modest beginning: a virus, present on a natural host in the wild, causes a pandemic by taking advantage of a large chain of interconnected events able to spread it globally. 
zh-cn	潜在的“穿山甲效应”表明，一种可避免的、相对温和的开始，最终导致不可避免的、影响极大的结局：存在于野外自然宿主身上的病毒，利用相互关联的事件形成的巨大链条得以在全球扩散，造成一场大流行。 

en-us	The first, large amplification phenomenon is increased exposure. 
zh-cn	首先，巨大的放大现象是暴露度上升。

en-us	Due to anthropogenic activities, we are substantially increasing our exposure to pathogens we have never been exposed to, and thus we’re not prepared to respond to. 
zh-cn	由于人为活动，我们对从未接触过因而毫无防范的病原体的暴露度大大增加

en-us	We’re doing this in two main ways: bringing wildlife too close to us, or us getting too close to wildlife. 
zh-cn	暴露度的增加主要通过两种方式：使野生动物距离我们太近，或者使我们距离野生动物太近。

en-us	The second, large amplification phenomenon could be attributed to globalization: once a pathogen has spilled over to humans, and enough individuals are infected, international flights and cruises and global value chains, transport those infected individuals to all corners of the globe. 
zh-cn	第二种放大现象可能归因于全球化：一旦病原体溢出到人类，并且有足够多的个体受到感染，国际航班和游轮以及全球价值链又将那些被感染的人运送到全球的各个角落。 

en-us	Bringing wildlife too close to us: the wildlife trade 
zh-cn	使野生动物距离我们太近：野生动物交易

en-us	Illegal wildlife trade is estimated to be the fourth largest illegal crime in the world after drugs, counterfeits and human trafficking. 
zh-cn	据估计，非法野生动物交易是世界上仅次于毒品、假货和人口贩运的第四大非法交易犯罪。

en-us	The legal wildlife trade is regulated by the CITES convention, but its objective is to ensure that the trade does not threaten wildlife survival. 
zh-cn	合法的野生动物交易受《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》管辖，但其目的是确保此种交易不会威胁到野生动植物的生存。

en-us	Both types of trade act as large conveyor belts, transporting wildlife -and their pathogens- far and wide, intensifying contact with humans and significantly increasing the chances of transmission. 
zh-cn	这两种类型的交易都成为巨大的传送带，将野生动物及其病原体传输到四面八方，增大了人类的暴露度，显著增加了传播机会。 

en-us	Illegal trade was likely the conduit through which COVID-infected animals were forced into contact with humans (if pangolins are finally confirmed as the intermediary host, it would be an ironic twist, as they’re the most traded mammal worldwide, with all eight known species in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, three of which are classified as critically endangered). 
zh-cn	非法交易可能是迫使感染新冠病毒的动物与人类接触的渠道（如果穿山甲被最终认定为中间宿主，那将是一个反讽，因为它们是全世界交易量最大的哺乳动物，所有8个已知种群均列入国际自然保护联盟濒危物种红色名录，其中3个种群被列为极度濒危物种）。

en-us	Traded wildlife is sold for food, for parts, as pets, for traditional medicinal uses, and others. 
zh-cn	野生动物被交易出售作为食物、零部件、宠物、传统药物以及其他用途使用。

en-us	In many parts of the world, wildlife consumption and use are deeply-rooted cultural practices. 
zh-cn	在世界许多地方，野生动物的消费和利用是根深蒂固的文化习俗。

en-us	As demonstrated by China’s swift ban of all wildlife trade for consumption, forcefully limiting human exposure to wildlife is a fundamental step to prevent the emergence of new EIDs. 
zh-cn	正如中国迅速禁止交易和食用所有野生动物所证明，强行限制人类对野生动物的暴露度是防止出现新发传染病的一个基本步骤。

en-us	Improving hygienic conditions along the entire legal wildlife trade chain, and imposing strict and safe conditions for its sale and consumption, are also key. 
zh-cn	改善整个合法野生动物交易链的卫生条件，并对其销售和消费实行严格和安全的条件规定也是关键。

en-us	These elements are usually weak in many countries, where the veterinary services for livestock are well advanced, but practices for inspection of wildlife are not fully developed and integrated 
zh-cn	在许多国家，这些方面通常是薄弱环节，畜牧业的兽医服务比较发达，但野生动物监督检查仍不规范和尚未整合。 

en-us	Getting too close to wildlife – habitat degradation 
zh-cn	距离野生动物太近 – 栖息地退化

en-us	Biodiversity provides a key service many of us are less familiar with: disease regulation. 
zh-cn	生物多样性提供了我们许多人不熟悉的一项关键服务：抑制疾病。

en-us	Natural biodiversity limits the exposure and impact of many pathogens through a dilution or buffering effect, thus minimizing opportunities for pathogen spillover to humans. 
zh-cn	天然生物多样性通过稀释或缓冲作用，限制了许多病原体的风险和影响，从而最大程度地减少了病原体向人类溢出的机会。

en-us	Deforestation and land use change, habitat fragmentation, encroachment, rapid population growth and urbanization are some of the ecological, behavioral and socioeconomic factors that amplify human exposure and multiply chances of contagion. 
zh-cn	森林砍伐和土地用途改变、栖息地碎片化、侵占、人口快速增长和城市化，这些生态、行为和社会经济因素扩大了人类的暴露风险，增加了传染机会。

en-us	Climate change is an additional, known driver of EIDs, creating new opportunities for pathogens, accelerating the appearance of invasive species and displacing the range where natural species occur. 
zh-cn	气候变化是新发传染病的另一个已知驱动因素，它为病原体创造了新的机会，加速了入侵物种的出现，扰乱了自然物种的发生范围。 

en-us	Anthropogenic activities are eliminating the buffering effect that biodiversity and ecosystems provide, increasing the risk of the next pandemic. 
zh-cn	人为活动正在消减生物多样性和生态系统提供的缓冲作用，增加下一次大流行的风险。 

en-us	All of these drivers allow researchers to determine hotspots of zoonotic EID risk, and findings show that risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. 
zh-cn	所有这些驱动因素使研究人员能够确定人畜共患新发传染病风险的热点地区，其研究结果表明，在经历土地用途变化和野生动物多样性（哺乳动物物种丰富）较高的热带森林地区，这种风险较高。

en-us	China and Southeast Asia are known hotspots as well. 
zh-cn	中国和东南亚地区也是众所周知的热点地区。

en-us	Anthropogenic activities are eliminating the buffering effect that biodiversity and ecosystems provide, increasing the risk of the next pandemic. 
zh-cn	人为活动正在消减生物多样性和生态系统提供的缓冲作用，增加下一次大流行的风险。

en-us	Reversing these trends is, more than ever, an issue of global relevance for public human health. 
zh-cn	扭转这些趋势对于全球人类的公共健康是比以往任何时候都更重要的议题。 

en-us	One Health  
zh-cn	同一健康 

en-us	While plenty of EID-related attention and expenditures are devoted to the human part of the equation (preparedness and emergency response, public health), greater attention should be given to halting the main drivers that cause EIDs in the first place. 
zh-cn	尽管对新发传染病的大量注意力和支出都集中在等式的人类一边（准备和应急响应、公共卫生），但对于首先要停止导致新发传染病的主要驱动因素也应给予更大的重视。

en-us	One Health approaches recognize that human and animal health are interdependent and bound to the health of the ecosystems in which they exist. 
zh-cn	同一健康的理念认为，人类和动物健康是相互依存的，并与其所处的生态系统的健康息息相关。

en-us	The World Bank’s recent announcement of US$12 billion for COVID-19 country responses gives us the chance to build a comprehensive package of action that includes human, animal and environmental health. 
zh-cn	世界银行最近宣布投放140亿美元用于支持各国应对新冠肺炎，使我们有机会制定一个包括人、动物和环境卫生在内的全面的行动计划。

en-us	The latter is usually the weakest link. 
zh-cn	后者通常是最薄弱的环节。

en-us	As development practitioners, we should engage the ministries of environment and natural resources, wildlife departments, research institutions, NGOs and civil society, and address gaps on wildlife health surveillance and disease emergence, wildlife trade veterinary practices, hygienic regulations, wildlife trade policies and practices, and effective communication of risks. 
zh-cn	作为发展实践者，我们应当与环境和自然资源部门、野生动植物保护部门、研究机构、非政府组织和公民社会加强联系，填补野生动植物健康监测和疾病出现、野生动物交易兽医规范、卫生法规、野生动物交易政策和规范方面存在的空白，并有效地通报风险。 

en-us	Human and animal health are interdependent and bound to the health of the ecosystems in which they exist. 
zh-cn	人类和动物健康是相互依存的，并与其所处的生态系统的健康息息相关。 

en-us	As the coronavirus continues to spread, the promotion of environmental health as a key element of our own health, and of activities that severely limit human exposure to wildlife are more urgent than ever. 
zh-cn	随着冠状病毒继续扩散，促进环境健康已成为事关我们自身健康的关键要素，也是严格限制人类接触野生动物的当务之急。

en-us	Preventing the next Pangolin Effect starts by curbing illegal wildlife trade and better regulating legal trade, improving biodiversity and habitat conservation and maintaining robust ecosystem services. 
zh-cn	要想预防“穿山甲效应”卷土重来，首先要遏制非法野生动物交易，更好地规范合法贸易，改善生物多样性和栖息地保护，维持健全的生态系统服务。

en-us	The window of opportunity is both wide open, and short-lived.
zh-cn	机会之窗依然敞开，但稍纵即逝。