en-us	Viral protectionism in the time of coronavirus
zh-cn	新冠肺炎疫情期间的病毒保护主义

en-us	By now we are all familiar with the sight of empty shelves in supermarkets and pharmacies where masks, respirators, and gloves used to be. Fear and hoarding magnify scarcity.
zh-cn	到现在我们都已对超市和药房过去放口罩、呼吸器和手套的货架空空如也习以为常，恐慌和囤积加剧了医疗用品稀缺。

en-us	Less visibly, similar dynamics are playing out at a global level— with some countries saving their supplies for their own citizens.
zh-cn	不太明显的是，类似情况正在全球各地出现，一些国家把医疗用品省下来供给本国国民。

en-us	The consequences of such actions are far-reaching and life-threatening.
zh-cn	这种行动的后果影响深远，危及生命。

en-us	Even in its heyday, the World Trade Organization (WTO) struggled to prevent such behavior.
zh-cn	即使在全盛时期，世界贸易组织也在奋力阻止这种行为。

en-us	New initiatives are necessary.
zh-cn	有必要采取新的举措。

en-us	The spread of the coronavirus is driving up the prices of medical supplies as production struggles to meet demand.
zh-cn	由于产量难以满足需求，新冠病毒蔓延推高了医疗用品的价格。

en-us	Media reports indicate that prices of face masks and respirators on Amazon have increased five times since the end of January.
zh-cn	媒体报道显示，1月底以来亚马逊上的口罩和呼吸器价格上涨了五倍。

en-us	To retain production of essential supplies for domestic consumers, several countries have imposed restrictions on exports of medical products. They hope to avoid domestic shortages and keep prices stable during the coronavirus crisis.
zh-cn	为了保障国内消费者的基本物资生产，一些国家对医疗产品实行出口限制，希望在新冠肺炎危机期间避免国内物资短缺并保持价格稳定。

en-us	As the virus advances, export protectionism is likely to infect even more countries.
zh-cn	随着病毒的蔓延，出口保护主义有可能会感染更多的国家。

en-us	Restrictive actions by exporters reduce global supply, leading to higher prices.
zh-cn	出口国的限制措施减少了全球供应，导致价格上涨。

en-us	This provokes new export restrictions to insulate domestic markets, generating a “multiplier effect” on world prices.
zh-cn	这引发新的出口限制来隔绝国内市场，从而对世界产品价格产生“乘数效应”。

en-us	Economics and recent experience show that these measures ultimately hurt all countries, particularly the more fragile.
zh-cn	经济学和最近的经验表明，这些措施最终会伤害所有国家，尤其是较脆弱的国家。

en-us	Restrictive actions by exporters reduce global supply, leading to higher prices.
zh-cn	出口国的限制措施减少了全球供应，导致价格上涨。

en-us	This provokes new export restrictions to insulate domestic markets, generating a “multiplier effect” on world prices.
zh-cn	这引发新的出口限制来隔绝国内市场，从而对世界产品价格产生“乘数效应”。

en-us	Such a sequence is more likely in the concentrated markets for certain medical products.
zh-cn	在集中供应某些医疗产品的市场，这一连锁反应更有可能发生。

en-us	For example, seven countries account for 70 percent of world exports of ventilators for artificial respiration—vital for the treatment of coronavirus.
zh-cn	例如，七个国家在对治疗新冠肺炎至关重要的全球人工呼吸机出口总量中占70%。

en-us	If even one of them were to ban exports, prices could increase by up to 10 percent in the short run, and by much more if other countries react.
zh-cn	只要其中一个国家禁止出口，价格在短期内就可能会上涨10%，如果其他国家也做出反应，涨价幅度就会大得多。

en-us	Health care in importing countries will immediately suffer due to the resulting scarcity and higher prices.
zh-cn	由于随之而来的物资短缺和涨价，进口国的医疗卫生工作会立即受到损害。

en-us	Particularly in poorer countries, with limited domestic production capacity, export restrictions on medicines and equipment could be deadly.
zh-cn	特别是对于国内产能有限的贫困国家来说，药品和设备出口限制可能是致命的。

en-us	But exporters may eventually lose out too when world prices spiral up.
zh-cn	但是，当世界各国纷纷涨价时，出口国最终也会遭受损失​​。

en-us	As in a stadium, if all persons stand up to see better, everyone is less comfortable but no one gets a better view.
zh-cn	就像在体育场里，如果所有人都站起来想看得更清楚，那么每个人都会不舒服，没有人能看得更清楚。

en-us	Prices would be higher than need be, and supplies would be distributed neither efficiently nor equitably.
zh-cn	价格会高于必要水平，物资无法得到有效或公平分配。

en-us	We should have learned from recent experience about such perverse effects.
zh-cn	我们应该已从最近的经验中了解到这种不利影响。

en-us	When world prices shot up in in 2008-2011, governments worldwide imposed 85 new export restrictions on food products.
zh-cn	当2008-2011年世界粮价飙升时，各国政府对粮食产品出口采取了85项新的限制措施。

en-us	Research showed that these actions pushed world food prices up by another 13 percent on average—and by 45 percent for rice.
zh-cn	研究表明，这些措施导致世界粮价平均上涨了13%，大米价格上涨了45%。

en-us	If, in bad times, importing countries are shut out by producing countries, trade will be seen as an unreliable way of securing access to essential products.
zh-cn	如果在困难时期进口国被生产国拒之门外，贸易就会被看成是确保基本物资供应的不可靠方式。

en-us	There are also longer-term consequences.
zh-cn	此外还有长期的后果。

en-us	If, in bad times, importing countries are shut out by producing countries, trade will be seen as an unreliable way of securing access to essential products. Self-sufficiency through protection in good times will seem the best insurance against scarcity in bad times, as some are already arguing is the case for essential medicines.
zh-cn	如果在困难时期进口国被生产国拒之门外，贸易就会被看成是确保基本物资供应的不可靠方式，认为在情况好的时候通过保护措施实现自给自足是防止困难时期物资短缺的最好保障，正如现在有些人已经提出基本药物就是这种情况。

en-us	Any shift away from openness, however, will be costly for all.
zh-cn	但是，任何偏离开放的举动都会让所有人付出高昂的代价。

en-us	Medical supplies will cost more, and variety and quality will suffer, as we lose the benefits of scale and specialization through trade.
zh-cn	如果我们丧失了通过贸易实现规模化和专业化的效益，那么医疗用品的价格会更高，种类和质量也会受到损害。

en-us	For example, the production of bulk drugs at scale in China and their incorporation into specific formulations in India has reduced prices and improved access worldwide.
zh-cn	例如，中国大规模生产散装药并用于印度的特定配方已降低了药价，改善了全球供应。

en-us	We must ensure that trade flows freely in good times and bad.
zh-cn	我们必须确保无论在好的时期还是困难时期贸易都能自由流动。

en-us	While the WTO has regulated import barriers, countries remain largely free to restrict exports.
zh-cn	尽管世贸组织已经对进口壁垒有所规定，但各国在很大程度上仍然有权限制出口。

en-us	To deal with this gap, WTO members—or at least the G20 countries—could agree not to restrict exports of coronavirus-related medical products.
zh-cn	为了解决这一空白，世贸组织成员国或者至少20国集团成员国可以达成协议不对新冠疫情有关的医疗产品的采取出口限制。

en-us	Consuming countries could do their part too by liberalizing imports.
zh-cn	消费国也可以通过放宽进口来发挥自己的作用。

en-us	For example, 46 developing countries tax their own health care by imposing on respirators tariffs of between 5 and 25 percent.
zh-cn	例如，46个发展中国家通过对呼吸器征收5%至25%的进口关税，是对本国的医疗卫生事业征税。

en-us	Eliminating both export restrictions and tariffs on medical products could produce substantial long-term gains.
zh-cn	取消医疗产品出口限制和进口关税可以带来巨大的长期效益。

en-us	But openness to trade may not be enough.
zh-cn	但是开放贸易可能还不够。

en-us	In parallel, a precedent in medicine could be adapted for the current situation.
zh-cn	与此同时，医学上的先例也可以适用于目前的情况。

en-us	Traditionally, public-private partnerships like the Meningitis Vaccine Project have been established to create new drugs or improve access to drugs where prices are high because of intellectual property rights.
zh-cn	过去曾为开发新药或者改善因知识产权而药价较高的地区的药品供应而建立诸如脑膜炎疫苗项目之类的公私合作伙伴关系（PPP）。

en-us	International organizations could catalyze similar collaboration to expand the supply of key medical products to deal with the coronavirus.
zh-cn	国际组织可以促进开展类似的合作，以扩大防控新冠肺炎的关键医疗用品供应。

en-us	Private companies could be directly contracted to expand production to fulfill the needs of developing countries.
zh-cn	可以与私营企业直接签约扩大产量来满足发展中国家的需求。

en-us	Some such initiatives are already underway.
zh-cn	一些此类倡议已经在进行中。

en-us	But to generate the greatest benefits, aid-for-production should be given to countries based not on consumer need but on producer comparative advantage.
zh-cn	但是，要想产生最大效益，向国家提供生产援助时的依据应该不是消费者需求而是生产者的比较优势。

en-us	The chosen locations would benefit from new investment and jobs, but would be required to keep trade completely free.
zh-cn	选择的生产地可以从新的投资和就业机会中受益，但需要保持贸易完全自由化。

en-us	Openness would ensure that essential medical products are produced where it is most efficient and flow to where they are most needed.
zh-cn	开放性将确保基本医疗用品在生产效率最高的地方生产并输送到最需要的地方。

en-us	Deeper international cooperation will be the most effective vaccine against viral protectionism.
zh-cn	深化国际合作将是预防病毒保护主义最有效的疫苗。