en-us	East Asia and the Pacific in the Time of COVID-19 – Regional Economic Update, April 2020
zh-cn	新冠疫情时期的东亚与太平洋地区 - 2020年4月期世界银行东亚与太平洋地区经济半年报

en-us	Summary of Key Recommendations
zh-cn	主要建议

en-us	Developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), already struggling with international trade tensions and COVID-19, now face a global shock as the pandemic hits major economies around the world.
zh-cn	随着大流行波及全世界主要经济体，已在奋力应对国际贸易紧张局势与新冠疫情的东亚与太平洋地区（EAP）发展中经济体，现在又面临全球性冲击。

en-us	EAP countries must act quickly, cooperatively, and at scale.
zh-cn	东亚各国必须采取快速、合作和大规模的行动。

en-us	The report provides six main policy recommendations for countries:
zh-cn	报告给各国提出了六点主要政策建议。

en-us	1. Adjust both health policies and macroeconomic policies.
zh-cn	1.调整医疗卫生政策和宏观经济政策。

en-us	To prevent the spread of infection, many governments are taking transmission control measures like lockdowns and travel bans to “flatten the pandemic curve”.
zh-cn	为了防止感染扩散，多国政府采取了控制传播的措施，比如封城、旅行限制等，以期“拉平大流行曲线”。

en-us	In parallel, to mitigate the resulting adverse economic impact, governments are taking monetary, fiscal and structural measures to “flatten the recession curve”.
zh-cn	与此同时，为了缓解由此产生的不利经济影响，政府采取了货币、财政和结构性措施，以期“拉平衰退曲线”。

en-us	In addition, early investments in health can reduce the need to take costly preventive measures when epidemics strike.
zh-cn	此外，早先的医疗卫生投资能够在流行病出现时减少采取成本高昂的预防措施的必要性。

en-us	For example, countries like Singapore and the Republic of Korea seem to have benefitted from high levels of testing, tracking, and quarantines.
zh-cn	例如，新加坡、韩国等国似乎就得益于高水平的检测、追踪和隔离。

en-us	2. Urgently boost health care capacity to meet what may be an overwhelming demand for a sustained period.
zh-cn	2.亟需提升医疗服务能力，以满足可能要持续一段时间的巨大需求。

en-us	Apart from expanding conventional health care facilities and medical equipment factories, innovative measures are likely to be needed such as converting ordinary hospital beds for ICU use and rapidly training people to work in basic healthcare.
zh-cn	除了扩大常规医疗设施和医疗设备生产厂外，有可能还需要创新措施，比如把普通医院病床改作重症监护病床使用，快速培训人员参与基本医疗工作。

en-us	Ensuring adequate access for the poor may require the provision of free or subsidized testing and treatment.
zh-cn	确保贫困人口获得适当救治可能需要提供免费或补贴费用的检测和治疗。

en-us	3. Adjust fiscal and monetary policy to meet the COVID-19 crisis.
zh-cn	3.调整财政和货币政策以应对新冠肺炎危机。

en-us	Expansionary macroeconomic policy cannot do much to increase production and employment during periods when workers are obliged to stay at home.
zh-cn	扩张性的宏观经济政策在工人被迫居家期间对于扩大生产和就业起不了多大作用。

en-us	Instead, fiscal measures should support the public health response, provide social protection to cushion against shocks, especially for the most economically vulnerable.
zh-cn	相反，财政措施应支持公共卫生应对，提供社会保护以缓解冲击，尤其是针对经济上最脆弱的群体。

en-us	For example, subsidies for sick pay and expenditure on health care could alleviate distress and help support containment.
zh-cn	例如，病假工资和医疗费补贴可以减轻压力，有助于支持遏制疫情。

en-us	Expanded safety nets could provide temporary relief to families whose earnings have been adversely affected by the outbreak.
zh-cn	扩大社会安全网可以给收入受到疫情负面影响的家庭提供临时救助。

en-us	School feeding and other support to students during school closures, as well as employment support to help workers reintegrate into the economy after the outbreak has abated, would ensure that temporary deprivation does not translate into long-term losses of human capital.
zh-cn	学校供餐以及在学校关闭期间对学生的其他资助，以及在疫情消退后帮助工人重新融入经济的就业支持，可以确保暂时贫困不会转化为人力资本的长期损失。

en-us	Similarly, liquidity injections can help firms stay in business and maintain beneficial links to Global Value Chains (GVCs).
zh-cn	同样，注入流动性可以帮助企业维持经营，保持与全球价值链的有益联系。

en-us	4. In the financial sector, ease access to credit for households to ease hardships and smooth consumption, and ease access to liquidity for firms to help them survive the current disruption.
zh-cn	4.在金融行业，放宽居民信贷限制以减轻困难并平滑消费，以及缓解企业流动性压力，帮助企业安全度过目前的生产中断。

en-us	At the same time regulators must ensure risk disclosure and clearly communicate supervisory expectations to avoid financial instability, especially in economies with high levels of private indebtedness.
zh-cn	与此同时，监管机构必须确保风险信息披露，并明确传达监管期望，以避免金融不稳定，尤其是在私人债务水平较高的经济体。

en-us	For poorer countries, debt relief will be essential, so that critical resources can be focused on managing the economic and health impacts of the pandemic.
zh-cn	对于较贫困国家，债务减免将是必要的，以便集中关键资源用于管理疫情对经济和健康的影响。

en-us	5. Trade policy must stay open.
zh-cn	5.贸易政策必须保持开放。

en-us	To retain the production of essential supplies for domestic consumers, several countries have imposed restrictions on exports of medical products.
zh-cn	为了保障国内消费者必要的物质供应，一些国家对医疗产品实行了出口限制。

en-us	Economics and recent experience show that these measures ultimately hurt all countries, particularly the more fragile.
zh-cn	经济学和最近的经验表明，这些措施最终会伤害所有国家，特别是较脆弱的国家。

en-us	6. In all of these areas, boost international cooperation and develop public private partnerships, particularly to ensure the supply of key medical products.
zh-cn	6.在所有这些领域促进国际合作和开展公共与私营部门合作，尤其是确保关键医疗物资供应。

en-us	All countries must recognize that, in addition to bold national actions, deeper international cooperation is the most effective vaccine against this virulent threat.
zh-cn	所有国家都必须认识到，除了大胆的国家行动以外，深化国际合作是防御病毒威胁最有效的疫苗。

en-us	Summary of Key Findings
zh-cn	主要发现

en-us	Following the spread of COVID-19 and increased financial volatility, the growth outlook for the region in 2020 has been sharply downgraded.
zh-cn	在新冠疫情扩散和金融动荡加剧的情况下，2020年增长前景预测大幅下调。

en-us	•In a rapidly changing environment, making precise growth projections is unusually difficult.
zh-cn	•在快速变化的环境中，做出精准的增长预测异常困难。

en-us	Therefore, the report presents both a baseline and a lower-case scenario.
zh-cn	因此，报告提出了基线和悲观情景假设。

en-us	•Growth in the developing EAP region is projected to slow to 2.1 percent in the baseline and to a negative 0.5 in the lower case scenario in 2020, from an estimated 5.8 percent in 2019.
zh-cn	•预计2020年在基线情景下东亚地区发展中经济体增速将从2019年估计的5.8%放慢至2.1%，在悲观情景下降至负0.5%。

en-us	Growth in China is projected to decline to 2.3 percent in the baseline and 0.1 percent in the lower case scenario in 2020, from 6.1 percent in 2019.
zh-cn	预计2020年在基线情景下中国增速将从2019年的6.1%降至2.3%，在悲观情景下降至0.1%。

en-us	•Growth in EAP excluding China is projected to slow from 4.7 percent in 2019 to 1.3 percent in the baseline scenario and negative 2.9 in the lower-case scenario in 2020, and is projected to rebound gradually in 2021 as the effects of the virus dissipate.
zh-cn	•在不包括中国的情况下，预计2020年在基线情景下东亚地区增速将从2019年的4.7%放慢至1.3%，在悲观情景下降至负2.9%，预计随着病毒影响消散2021年将逐渐出现回升。

en-us	China has seen a precipitous decline in economic activity.
zh-cn	中国出现经济活动急剧下滑。

en-us	•In February, the purchasing managers' index fell below the 50-point mark that separates monthly growth from contraction. The fall was sharper and wider than during the great recession, to 36 in manufacturing and 30 in non-manufacturing.
zh-cn	•2月份采购经理指数降至作为月度增长与收缩分界线的50点以下,下降幅度与范围超过了大衰退时期，制造业降至36，非制造业降至30。

en-us	Industrial production also registered negative growth for the first time in more than 30 years.
zh-cn	工业生产也出现30多年来的首次负增长。

en-us	•It remains to be seen whether the government can switch on economic activity as abruptly as it was switched off.
zh-cn	•政府是否会如同突然关闭经济活动一样突然开启经济活动仍有待观察。

en-us	Many large industrial enterprises are reported to have resumed production, even though many small and medium enterprises are still struggling.
zh-cn	据报道很多大型工业企业都已恢复生产，但许多中小企业仍在苦苦挣扎。

en-us	Indirect estimates, such as pollution indicators, show that activity is increasing only gradually in China.
zh-cn	非直接估计比如污染指数显示，中国的经济活动仅是在逐步增加。

en-us	The COVID-19 shock will also have a serious impact on poverty reduction across the region.
zh-cn	新冠疫情的冲击对整个地区的减贫也有严重影响。

en-us	•The report estimates that under the baseline growth scenario, 24 million fewer people will escape poverty across the region in 2020 than would have in the absence of the pandemic (using a poverty line of USD5.50/day).
zh-cn	•报告估计在基线增长情景下，东亚地区的脱贫人口将会比不发生大流行的情况下减少2400万人（采用日均生活费5.5美元的贫困标准）。

en-us	•If the economic situation were to deteriorate further, and the lower-case scenario prevails, then poverty is estimated to increase by about 11 million people.
zh-cn	•如果经济形势进一步恶化，悲观情景占上风，据估计贫困人口反而将会增加约1100万人。

en-us	•Prior projections estimated that 35 million people would escape poverty in the region in 2020, including over 25 million in China alone.
zh-cn	•原先预测2020年东亚地区将有3500万人脱贫，中国一个国家的脱贫人口就超过2500万人。

en-us	Households linked to economic sectors affected by COVID-19 will face a substantially elevated risk of falling into poverty, at least in the short-run.
zh-cn	与受疫情影响的经济行业息息相关的居民所面临的陷入贫困的风险显著上升，至少在短期内是这样。

en-us	•These sectors include tourism and retail in Thailand, and manufacturing and textiles in Vietnam
zh-cn	•这些行业包括泰国的旅游业和零售业、越南的制造业和纺织业等。

en-us	•Informal workers in all countries are especially likely to suffer and will be the hardest to help.
zh-cn	•所有国家的非正规工人尤其可能受影响，而且最难以帮助。

en-us	Financial systems across the region remain vulnerable to external shocks, especially in countries with high private sector debt.
zh-cn	整个地区的金融系统仍很容易受到外来冲击的影响，尤其是私人债务水平较高的国家。

en-us	•The rate of increase in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand (EAP-5) debt has been much faster than the rate of increase for the rest of the world so that EAP-5 share of total global debt increased from 3.4 percent in 2005 to 18 percent in 2019.
zh-cn	•中国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国的债务增长率远超世界其他国家，因而在全球债务总额中的占比从2005年的3.4%到2019年上升至18%。

en-us	Other country-specific circumstances have weighed on the outlook.
zh-cn	其他国家特定情况对前景造成压力。

en-us	•All countries in the region sharply downgraded their growth forecasts, largely reflecting the effect of the spread of the disease.
zh-cn	•该地区所有国家都大幅下调了增长预测,主要是反映出疫情扩散的影响。

en-us	Country-specific factors, such as droughts (Thailand), and commodity shocks (Malaysia and Mongolia), also weighed on the outlook.
zh-cn	国家特定因素、比如干旱（泰国）和大宗商品冲击（马来西亚和蒙古国）也对前景构成压力。

en-us	In the Pacific Island countries, the outlook for 2020 is subject to substantial risks due to their economies’ reliance on grants and tourism.
zh-cn	在太平洋群岛国家，由于其经济依靠赠款和旅游业，2020年的经济前景面临很大风险。

en-us	•A worsening in the COVID-19 pandemic and/or more severe/prolonged travel restrictions would have further negative impacts on tourism activity.
zh-cn	•如果新冠肺炎大流行继续恶化,旅行限制更加严厉或持续时间更长，将会对旅游业活动产生进一步的负面影响。

en-us	Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic circumstances within countries and regions are fluid and change on a day-by-day basis.
zh-cn	由于新冠肺炎大流行，国家和地区内的经济情况每天变化不定。

en-us	The analysis in this report is based on the latest country-level data available as of March 27.
zh-cn	本报告的分析基于截至3月27日的最新国别数据。