en-us	The pandemic Going global The virus is coming.
zh-cn	全球瘟疫 走向世界 病毒来袭。

en-us	Governments have an enormous amount of work to do
zh-cn	各国政府任务极为繁重

en-us	IN PUBLIC HEALTH, honesty is worth a lot more than hope.
zh-cn	在公共卫生领域，“诚实”远比“希望”更有价值。

en-us	It has become clear in the past week that the new viral disease,covid-19, which struck China at the start of December will spread around the world.
zh-cn	过去一周的情况表明，在12月初开始袭击中国的新型传染病新冠肺炎将传播至全球各地。

en-us	Many governments have been signalling that they will stop the disease.
zh-cn	多国政府纷纷表示它们会遏制住这种疾病。

en-us	Instead, they need to start preparing people for the onslaught.
zh-cn	但实际上，它们需要开始让国民做好应对病毒猛烈来袭的准备。

en-us	Officials will have to act when they do not have all the facts, because much about the virus is unknown.
zh-cn	官员们将不得不在信息不全的情况下行动，因为关于该病毒的许多情况尚属未知。

en-us	A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease.
zh-cn	据大致估计，任何受感染国家中25%至70％的人口可能感染此病。

en-us	China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care.
zh-cn	中国的经验显示，在确诊病例中，约80％为轻症，15％需要住院治疗，5％需要重症监护。

en-us	Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year.
zh-cn	专家表示，该病毒的致死率可能是季节性流感的五至十倍，而流感的致死率为0.1％，在一个严重的年份里导致六万美国人死亡。

en-us	Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions.
zh-cn	全球来看，该病毒的死亡人数可能高达数百万。

en-us	If the pandemic is like a very severe flu, models point to global economic growth being two percentage points lower over 12 months, at around 1%; if it is worse still, the world economy could shrink.
zh-cn	如果将发生的全球性瘟疫类似一场非常严重的流感，模型显示未来12个月全球经济增速将下降两个百分点，至1％左右。如果疫情更加严重，世界经济可能萎缩。

en-us	As that prospect sank in duringlastweek, the S&P 500 fell by 8%.
zh-cn	上周，随着这种可能性显现，标普500指数下跌了8％。

en-us	Yet all those outcomes depend greatly on what governments choose to do, as China shows.
zh-cn	但正如中国的情况所示，结果究竟会如何在极大程度上取决于政府选择怎么做。

en-us	Hubei province, the origin of the epidemic, has a population of 59m.It has seen more than 65,000 cases and a fatality rate of 2.9%.
zh-cn	这一流行病的发源地湖北省拥有5900万人口，至今累计确诊病例超过65,000例，病死率为2.9％。

en-us	By contrast, the rest of China, which contains 1.3bn people, has suffered fewer than 13,000 cases with a fatality rate of just 0.4%.
zh-cn	相比之下，有13亿人口的中国的其他省份确诊病例不到13,000例，病死率仅为0.4％。

en-us	Chinese officials at first suppressed news of the disease, a grave error that allowed the virus to take hold.
zh-cn	中国官员在最初压制有关该疾病的消息，这是大错特错，病毒就此得以扎根传播。

en-us	But even before it had spread much outside Hubei, they imposed the largest and most draconian quarantine in history.
zh-cn	但在疾病在湖北以外地区流行之前，政府便实施了人类历史上规模最大、最严厉的隔离措施。

en-us	Factories shut, public transport stopped and people were ordered indoors.
zh-cn	工厂关闭，公交停运，民众被要求闭门不出。

en-us	This raised awareness and changed behaviour.
zh-cn	这提高了人们的防范意识，改变了人们的行为。

en-us	Without it, China would by now have registered many millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths.
zh-cn	否则到现在中国可能已经有千百万个确诊病例，数万人死亡。

en-us	The World Health Organisation was last week full of praise for China’s approach.
zh-cn	世卫组织上周对中国的做法赞不绝口。

en-us	That does not, however, mean it is a model for the rest of the world.
zh-cn	但这并不意味着中国的做法是世界其他地区的模板。

en-us	All quarantines carry a cost—not just in lost output, but also in the suffering of those locked away, some of whom forgo medical treatment for other conditions.
zh-cn	各种隔离措施都有其代价，不仅是产出减少，还会损害被封锁人群的利益，他们当中有些人患有其他疾病却得不到治疗。

en-us	It is still too soon to tell whether this price was worth the gains.
zh-cn	所付出的代价是否值得，现在下结论还为时尚早。

en-us	As China seeks to revive its economy by relaxing the quarantine, it could well be hit by a second wave of infections.
zh-cn	随着政府为求恢复经济而逐步放松隔离措施，中国有可能出现第二波感染潮。

en-us	Given that uncertainty, few democracies would be willing to trample over individuals to the extent China has.
zh-cn	考虑到这种不确定性，几乎没有哪个民主国家会愿意采取中国那种程度的对个体的高度管控。

en-us	And, as the chaotic epidemic in Iran shows, not all authoritarian governments are capable of it.
zh-cn	而且，从伊朗的疫情乱象来看，也并不是所有威权政府都能做到那样的程度。

en-us	A bad one is Iran’s deputy health minister, who succumbed to the virus during a press conference designed to show that the government is on top of the epidemic.
zh-cn	伊朗则是反例，其卫生部副部长在一次新闻发布会上出现发病症状，而这场发布会原本是要表明政府已经控制住了疫情。

en-us	Even well-meaning attempts to sugarcoat the truth are self-defeating, because they spread mistrust, rumours and, ultimately, fear.
zh-cn	即便是善意的美化事实也会事与愿违，因为这么做只会传播不信任、谣言，最终传播恐慌。

en-us	The signal that the disease must be stopped at any cost, or that it is too terrifying to talk about, frustrates efforts to prepare for the virus’s inevitable arrival.
zh-cn	如果释放出必须不惜一切代价遏制疫情或者疫情已可怕到不能去谈论的信号，就会挫败为应对必然到来的病毒所做的准备。

en-us	The best time to inform people about the disease is before the epidemic.
zh-cn	向民众通报该疾病信息的最佳时机是在它变成地区流行病之前。

en-us	One message is that fatality is correlated with age.
zh-cn	一个信息是病死率与年龄相关。

en-us	If you are over 80 or you have an underlying condition you are at high risk; if you are under 50 you are not.
zh-cn	超过80岁或患有基础疾病的人是高风险人群，50岁以下人群风险较低。

en-us	Now is the moment to persuade the future 80% of mild cases to stay at home and not rush to a hospital.
zh-cn	现在这个时候，应该要去说服那些占总病例80％的未来轻症患者留在家中，别急于往医院挤。

en-us	People need to learn to wash their hands often and to avoid touching their face.
zh-cn	人们需要学会经常洗手并避免触摸脸部。

en-us	Businesses need continuity plans, to let staff work from home and to ensure a stand-in can replace a vital employee who is ill or caring for a child or parent.
zh-cn	企业要做好业务连续性计划，让员工在家远程工作，并确保在重要员工生病或需要离岗照顾孩子或父母时有人能顶上。

en-us	The model is Singapore, which learned from SARS, another coronavirus, that clear, early communication limits panic.
zh-cn	在这方面，新加坡是楷模，它从另一种冠状病毒SARS中吸取了教训，明白及早而清晰地传达信息能减少恐慌。

en-us	Flattening the spike of the epidemic means that health systems are less overwhelmed, which saves lives.
zh-cn	控制病例飙升能减轻医疗系统的重负，从而挽救生命。

en-us	If, like flu, the virus turns out to be seasonal, some cases could be delayed until next winter, by which time doctors will understand better how to cope with it.
zh-cn	如果这种病毒变成了像流感那样的季节性疾病，一些病例能推后到明年冬天出现，到那时医生们会更了解该如何应对。

en-us	By then, new vaccines and antiviral drugs may be available.
zh-cn	而且到时也可能已经研发出新的疫苗和抗病毒药物。

en-us	When countries have few cases, they can follow each one, tracing contacts and isolating them.
zh-cn	在病例还很少的时候，国家能够追踪每个患者的行动，寻找接触过的人员并将他们隔离。

en-us	But when the disease is spreading in the community, that becomes futile.
zh-cn	但发生社区传播后，这样做就变成了徒劳。

en-us	Governments need to prepare for the moment when they will switch to social distancing, which may include cancelling public events, closing schools, staggering work hours and so on.
zh-cn	政府需要为转向社交隔离措施做好准备，这可能包括取消公共活动，关闭学校，错时工作等。

en-us	Given the uncertainties, governments will have to choose how draconian they want to be.
zh-cn	而由于各种不确定性，政府将不得不选择要采取多严厉的措施。

en-us	They should be guided by science.
zh-cn	它们应以科学为指导。

en-us	International travel bans look decisive, but they offer little protection because people find ways to move.
zh-cn	跨境旅行禁令看似坚决果断，但实际上能提供的保护不大，因为人们还是会找到办法移动。

en-us	They also signal that the problem is “them” infecting “us”, rather than limiting infections among “us”.
zh-cn	而且这种做法好像在说问题在于“他们”感染了“我们”，而不是限制病毒在“我们”之间传染。

en-us	Likewise, if the disease has spread widely, as in Italy and South Korea, “Wuhan-lite” quarantines of whole towns offer scant protection at a high cost.
zh-cn	同样地，假如疫情已经广泛传播，像在意大利和韩国，“小武汉”式的封城隔离能提供的保护就很有限，却代价高昂。

en-us	Scrub up The third lesson is to prepare health systems for what is to come.
zh-cn	医护准备 第三个教训是医疗系统要为疫情来袭做好准备。

en-us	That entails painstaking logistical planning.
zh-cn	这涉及辛苦细致的后勤规划。

en-us	Hospitals need supplies of gowns, masks, gloves, oxygen and drugs.
zh-cn	医院需要防护服、口罩、手套、氧气、药品等物资。

en-us	They should already be conserving them.
zh-cn	它们应该已经在储备这些东西。

en-us	They will run short of equipment, including ventilators.
zh-cn	呼吸机等设备将变得紧缺。

en-us	They need a scheme for how to set aside wards and floors for covid-19 patients, for how to cope if staff fall ill, and for how to choose between patients if they are overwhelmed.
zh-cn	医院需要制订计划，为新冠肺炎患者划出专门的病房和楼层，为医护人员染病做好准备，以及确定在医院超负荷时救治患者的轻重缓急。

en-us	By now, this work should have been done.
zh-cn	到此刻，这项规划工作应该已经完成。

en-us	This virus has already exposed the strengths and weaknesses of China’s authoritarianism.
zh-cn	新冠病毒已经显露出中国威权主义的强弱项。

en-us	It will test all the political systems with which it comes into contact, in both rich and developing countries.
zh-cn	它将考验所到之处的各种政治制度，不论是富裕国家还是发展中国家。

en-us	China has bought governments time to prepare for a pandemic.They should use it.
zh-cn	中国为各国政府备战一场全球性瘟疫赢得了时间，它们应该好好把握住。