zh-cn	应对COVID-19战争的经济政策 
en-us	Economic Policies for the COVID-19 War 

zh-cn	2020年4月1日 
en-us	April 1, 2020 

zh-cn	COVID-19流行病是一场截然不同的危机。
en-us	The COVID-19 pandemic is a crisis like no other. 

zh-cn	它感觉像一场战争，从很多方面看，它确实是一场战争。
en-us	It feels like a war, and in many ways it is. 

zh-cn	民众正处于死亡边缘。
en-us	People are dying. 

zh-cn	医疗专业人士身在前线。
en-us	Medical professionals are on the front lines. 

zh-cn	从事必要服务、粮食分配、运输配送和公共事业的人员加班加点支持抗疫工作。
en-us	Those in essential services, food distribution, delivery, and public utilities work overtime to support the effort. 

zh-cn	此外还有隐藏的战士：他们居家隔离对抗流行病，无法完全投身于生产。 
en-us	And then there are the hidden soldiers: those who fight the epidemic confined in their homes, unable to fully contribute to production. 

zh-cn	在一场战争中，武器的巨额支出能刺激经济活动，特殊条款能确保关键服务的运转。
en-us	In a war, massive spending on armaments stimulates economic activity and special provisions ensure essential services. 

zh-cn	在这场危机中，情况更加复杂，但一个共同特征是公共部门发挥了更大的作用。 
en-us	In this crisis, things are more complicated, but a common feature is an increased role for the public sector. 

zh-cn	由于面临着过度简化的风险，政策需要区分两个阶段： 
en-us	At the risk of oversimplifying, policy needs to distinguish two phases: 

zh-cn	第一阶段：战争。
en-us	Phase 1: the war. 

zh-cn	疫情正在全面爆发。
en-us	The epidemic is in full swing. 

zh-cn	为了拯救民众生命，减缓措施正在严重削弱经济活动。
en-us	To save people’s lives, mitigation measures are severely curtailing economic activity. 

zh-cn	这预计至少将持续一至两个季度。 
en-us	This may be expected to last at least one or two quarters. 

zh-cn	第二阶段：战后经济复苏。
en-us	Phase 2: the post-war recovery. 

zh-cn	在疫苗/药物问世、部分群体免疫、防控措施继续实施但破坏性减弱之后，流行病将得到控制。
en-us	The epidemic will be under control with vaccines/drugs, partial herd immunity, and continued but less disruptive containment measures. 

zh-cn	随着当局取消限制措施，经济——可能步履蹒跚地——恢复正常运转。 
en-us	As restrictions are lifted, the economy returns—perhaps haltingly—to normal functioning. 

zh-cn	经济复苏速度的成功将关键取决于危机期间采取的政策。
en-us	The success of the pace of recovery will depend crucially on policies undertaken during the crisis. 

zh-cn	若当局政策能避免工人失业、租户和房主遭到驱逐以及公司破产，并确保公司和贸易网络运转，经济复苏将会更早出现并且更加平稳。 
en-us	If policies ensure that workers do not lose their jobs, renters and homeowners are not evicted, companies avoid bankruptcy, and business and trade networks are preserved, the recovery will occur sooner and more smoothly. 

zh-cn	这对发达经济体是一项重大挑战，但政府能很容易为特别支出增长筹集资金，即使其收入正在减少。
en-us	This is a major challenge for advanced economies whose governments can easily finance an extraordinary increase in expenditures even as their revenues are dropping. 

zh-cn	这种挑战对面临资本外逃的低收入和新兴经济体而言更为严峻；它们将需要国际社会的赠款和融资（下一篇博客的关注焦点）。 
en-us	The challenge is even greater for low-income and emerging economies that face capital flight; they will require grants and financing from the global community (a focus for a subsequent blog). 

zh-cn	战时政策措施 
en-us	Wartime policy measures 

zh-cn	与其他经济下滑不同，此次危机的产出减少不是由需求驱动：这是限制疾病传播的措施不可避免的后果。
en-us	Unlike other economic downturns, the fall of output in this crisis is not driven by demand: it is an unavoidable consequence of measures to limit the spread of the disease. 

zh-cn	因此，经济政策的作用不是刺激总需求，至少不是立即进行刺激。
en-us	The role of economic policy is hence not to stimulate aggregate demand, at least not right away. 

zh-cn	相反，政策旨在实现三个目标： 
en-us	Rather, policy has three objectives: 

zh-cn	保证关键部门的运转。
en-us	Guarantee the functioning of essential sectors. 

zh-cn	当局必须增加用于COVID-19检测和治疗的资源。
en-us	Resources for COVID-19 testing and treatment must be boosted. 

zh-cn	常规医疗、粮食生产和分配，必要基础设施和公共事业必须维持运转。
en-us	Regular health care, food production and distribution, essential infrastructure, and utilities must be maintained. 

zh-cn	这可能甚至需要政府采取侵入性的行动，通过依靠战时权力提供关键供给，优先满足关键投入品和最终商品的公共合约，实施工业转产或选择性的国有化。
en-us	It may even involve intrusive actions by the government to provide key supplies through recourse to wartime powers with prioritization of public contracts for critical inputs and final goods, conversion of industries, or selective nationalizations. 

zh-cn	法国早期争夺医用口罩，美国启动《国防生产法案》来确保医用设备的生产都说明了这一点。
en-us	France’s early seizing of medical masks and the activation of the Defense Production Act in the United States to ensure the production of medical equipment illustrate this. 

zh-cn	若出现极度短缺，可能也有必要实施物资配给、价格管控和禁止囤积的规定。 
en-us	Rationing, price controls, and rules against hoarding may also be warranted in situations of extreme shortages. 

zh-cn	为受危机影响的民众提供充足的资源。
en-us	Provide enough resources for people hit by the crisis. 

zh-cn	因实施防控措施而失去直接或间接收入的家庭将需要得到政府支持。
en-us	Households who lose their income directly or indirectly because of containment measures will need government support. 

zh-cn	支持措施应该在帮助人们居家生活的同时保留其工作岗位（政府出资的病假能减少人员流动，从而降低传染风险）。
en-us	Support should help people stay at home while keeping their jobs (government-funded sick leave reduces movement of people, hence the risk of contagion). 

zh-cn	失业福利应该扩大范围并延长时间。
en-us	Unemployment benefits should be expanded and extended. 

zh-cn	需要提供现金转移支付，以惠及自雇者和无业群体。 
en-us	Cash transfers are needed to reach the self-employed and those without jobs. 

zh-cn	预防过度的经济混乱。
en-us	Prevent excessive economic disruption. 

zh-cn	政策需要保护工人与雇主、生产者与消费者、贷款者与借款者之间的关系网络，确保当医疗紧急状况减弱后公司可以正式恢复经营。
en-us	Policies need to safeguard the web of relations among workers and employers, producers and consumers, lenders and borrowers, so that business can resume in earnest when the medical emergency abates. 

zh-cn	公司倒闭将会引发组织技能流失，并导致长期生产性项目终止。
en-us	Company closures would cause loss of organizational know-how and termination of productive long-term projects. 

zh-cn	金融部门混乱也将会加剧经济困境。
en-us	Disruptions in the financial sector would also amplify economic distress. 

zh-cn	政府需要在恰当情况下为私人公司提供特别支持，包括工资补贴。
en-us	Governments need to provide exceptional support to private firms, including wage subsidies, with appropriate conditions. 

zh-cn	大型贷款和担保计划已经实施（风险最终将由纳税人承担），同时欧盟已放松国家援助规则，为直接向公司注资提供便利。
en-us	Large programs of loans and guarantees have already been put in place (with the risks ultimately borne by taxpayers), and the EU has facilitated direct capital injections into companies by relaxing its state-aid rules. 

zh-cn	若危机进一步恶化，可以想象会建立或扩大大型国有控股公司以接管陷入困境的私人公司，正如美国和欧洲在大萧条时期的做法。 
en-us	If the crisis worsens, one could imagine the establishment or expansion of large state holding companies to take over distressed private firms, as in the United States and Europe during the Great Depression. 

zh-cn	只要特殊情况持续存在，公共部门在紧急情况下加强干预是合理的，但提供方式必须透明并有明确的落日条款。 
en-us	Greater intervention by the public sector is justified by the emergency for as long as exceptional circumstances persist, but must be provided in a transparent manner and with clear sunset clauses. 

zh-cn	支持家庭、公司和金融部门的政策将结合一系列针对流动性（信贷供应、暂缓履行金融义务）和偿付能力（实际资源转移，见表）的措施。 
en-us	Policies in support of households, businesses, and the financial sector will involve a mix of liquidity measures (provision of credit, postponement of financial obligations) and solvency measures (transfers of real resources; see table). 

zh-cn	当局将需要管理几个权衡事项。
en-us	Several tradeoffs will need to be managed. 

zh-cn	若向大型公司提供转移支付或贴息贷款，它们应该满足如下条件——保留工作岗位以及限制首席执行官薪酬、股利和股票回购。
en-us	If transfers or subsidized loans are given to a large corporation, they should be conditional on preserving jobs and limiting CEO compensation, dividends, and stock repurchases. 

zh-cn	破产将确保股票持有者分担部分成本，但也将导致严重的经济混乱。
en-us	Bankruptcy would ensure that equity holders share some of the costs, but would also cause significant economic dislocation. 

zh-cn	一个中间方案是政府认购公司股权。
en-us	An intermediate option is for the government to take an equity stake in the firm. 

zh-cn	此前危机已经证明，当流动性出现问题时，央行（通过资产购买计划）或其他政府控制的金融中介机构（通过贷款和担保）提供的信贷是有效的。
en-us	When liquidity is the problem, credit by the central bank (through asset purchase programs) or other government controlled financial intermediaries (through loans and guarantees) has proven effective in previous crises. 

zh-cn	在识别和支持受到严重影响的中小企业或自雇职业者的过程中也出现了很多实际的问题。
en-us	Many practical questions arise also in identifying and supporting hard-hit small- and medium-sized enterprises or self-employed individuals. 

zh-cn	对于这些问题，应该考虑实施基于过去纳税情况的直接转移支付。 
en-us	For these, direct transfers based on past tax payments should be considered. 

zh-cn	这些国内政策需要得到维持国际贸易和合作的支持，这对于战胜流行病和尽可能增大经济迅速复苏的可能性至关重要。
en-us	These domestic policies need to be supported by maintaining international trade and cooperation, which are essential to defeating the pandemic and maximizing the chances of a quick recovery. 

zh-cn	限制人员流动对于防控疫情非常必要。
en-us	Limiting the movement of people is necessary for containment. 

zh-cn	但各国必须抗拒禁止贸易活动的本能，尤其是医疗用品和科学信息的自由交流。 
en-us	But countries must resist the instinct of shutting down trade, especially for health-care items and the free exchange of scientific information. 

zh-cn	从“就地避难”到经济复苏 
en-us	From shelter-in-place to recovery 

zh-cn	促进经济复苏本身将面临挑战，包括更高的公共债务水平以及在政府控制下可能出现的新经济部门。
en-us	Promoting the recovery will have its own challenges, including higher levels of public debt and possibly new swaths of the economy under government control. 

zh-cn	但第一阶段的相对成功将确保经济政策能够恢复正常运转。
en-us	But relative success in Phase 1 will ensure that economic policy can go back to its normal operation. 

zh-cn	随着当局允许民众出行和返工，刺激需求的财政措施将日益见效。 
en-us	Fiscal measures to boost demand will become increasingly effective as more people are allowed to leave their homes and go back to work. 

zh-cn	在流行病爆发前，多数发达经济体的利率和通胀预计将长期保持在较低水平。
en-us	Interest rates and inflation were projected to be low-for-long prior to the pandemic in most advanced economies. 

zh-cn	为防止供应链出现重大混乱，应该在紧急和经济复苏阶段避免通货膨胀。
en-us	Preventing major disruptions in supply chains should avoid inflation during the emergency and recovery phases. 

zh-cn	若防控病毒传播的措施取得成功，公共债务比率将必然出现大幅上升，但在恢复阶段，利率和总需求可能保持在较低水平。
en-us	If the measures to contain the spread of the virus are successful, the necessary increase in the public debt ratio will have been sizable, but interest rates and aggregate demand are likely to remain low in the recovery phase. 

zh-cn	在这些情况下，多数发达经济体的财政刺激措施将是恰当和高度有效的。
en-us	Under those circumstances, fiscal stimulus will be appropriate and highly effective in most advanced economies. 

zh-cn	同时，这将有助于退出危机期间引入的特别措施。
en-us	And this will facilitate exit from the exceptional measures introduced during the crisis.