en-us	The COVID-19 pandemic has put the world on a crisis footing, with unprecedented actions to restrict movements and plans for radical deployment of public funds to combat the threat posed by a novel coronavirus that knows no boundaries. 
zh-cn	2019冠状病毒病以下简称“新冠”大流行使全球陷入危机之中，各国采取了前所未有的人员流动限制措施，并制定了公共资金紧急调用计划，以应对在世界范围内传播的新型冠状病毒的威胁。 

en-us	Success will entail coherent and robust plans for our food systems. 
zh-cn	各国需要制定连贯和强有力的粮食系统计划以成功应对威胁。 

en-us	FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero Cullen outlines a framework for how countries can think about and craft these plans.  
zh-cn	粮农组织首席经济学家Maximo Torero Cullen将分享他的见解，为各国思考和制定此类计划提供框架性参考。 

en-us	As more countries adopt lockdown policies to contain and mitigate the COVID-19 crisis, is there a risk that we will run out of food?  
zh-cn	随着越来越多的国家采取封锁政策来遏制和缓解新冠肺炎危机，是否会出现食品短缺的风险？ 

en-us	The short answer is both yes and no.  
zh-cn	简单来看，可能出现，也可能不出现。 

en-us	There is that risk, but we have plenty of ways to reduce its likelihood, and the sooner we adopt them the more we can avoid exacerbating the global health crisis.  
zh-cn	虽然存在食品短缺的风险，但是我们有诸多方法可以降低这种风险，而且越早采取相关措施，就越有可能避免全球健康危机的加剧。 

en-us	Right now, supermarket shelves remain well-stocked.  
zh-cn	目前，超市货架上的物品仍然充足。 

en-us	But already we can see signs that pressures due to lockdowns are beginning to impact supply chains, such as the slowdown in the shipping industry.  
zh-cn	但是，已经有迹象表明，封锁带来的压力开始影响供应链，例如运输活动放缓。 

en-us	Disruptions, particularly in the area of logistics, could materialize in the coming months.  
zh-cn	冲击效应将会在未来几个月内显现，物流领域受到的影响将尤为突出。 

en-us	Governments are rolling out large-scale campaigns against the coronavirus, and battle plans should include measures aimed at lessening the shocks to their food supply chains.  
zh-cn	各国政府正在开展抗击新型冠状病毒的大规模活动，其应当将减轻食品供应链冲击的举措纳入病毒作战计划之中。 

en-us	These have to be kept alive, for everybody obviously and in particular for the most vulnerable, keeping in mind that the public health imperatives require everyone to collaborate and so must be possible for all.  
zh-cn	毋庸置疑，此类举措必须顾及所有人的需求，特别是最脆弱群体，应当牢记，公共卫生应急行动需要每个人的配合，因此必须面向所有人。 

en-us	So the long answer, so to speak, is no because we can't afford to make the mistakes that would exacerbate suffering now.  
zh-cn	因此，从长期来看，答案是否定的，因为在当前的疫情之下，我们无法承担错误决策所带来的严重后果。 

en-us	What is the first step?  
zh-cn	首要措施是什么？ 

en-us	Coordinated policy responses encompass all steps, but let me emphasize the priority of bolstering capacities to enhance emergency food assistance and bolster safety nets for vulnerable populations.  
zh-cn	协调一致的政策应对措施涵盖各方各面的内容，但我想强调的是，必须首先着手加强紧急粮食援助能力，并完善脆弱人群安全保护网。 

en-us	Schools are closing down around the world, which means 300 million children will miss out on school meals, which for many of them were already critical sources of nutritious diets.  
zh-cn	世界各国都在陆续关闭学校，这意味着3亿儿童将无法吃到校餐，对于许多儿童来说，校餐是其营养饮食的重要来源。 

en-us	On top of that, lockdown measures translate into layoffs and reduced income, making it more of a struggle for families to put food on the table.  
zh-cn	最重要的是，封锁措施会导致裁员和收入减少，这使得困难家庭更加揭不开锅。 

en-us	These households need cash more than anything else.  
zh-cn	这些家庭最需要的就是现金。 

en-us	One-off payments, as used for example by Hong Kong and Singapore, or multiple cash transfers, using existing programmes such as the SNAP programme in the United States or China's move to accelerate payments of unemployment insurance, are appropriate.  
zh-cn	发放一次性补助（如香港和新加坡的做法），或通过现有计划发放多次现金补助（如美国的营养补充援助计划或中国的加快失业保险金支付计划），都是合理的。 

en-us	Peru has targeted the vulnerable by boosting cash benefits for those over 65. 
zh-cn	秘鲁将脆弱人群作为援助对象，提高了对65岁以上老人的现金补助。 

en-us	In some contexts, moratoria on taxes and mortgage payments, as Italy is offering in its already decreed "Heal Italy" package, will be effective.  
zh-cn	从某种程度来说，延期缴纳税款和抵押贷款的措施将发挥效用，意大利正通过政府颁布的"意大利复原"（"HealItaly"）方案实施这一措施。 

en-us	It's important that such measures are robust and credible, as predictability is essential in a situation where workers are being forced to stay home and practise physical distancing.  
zh-cn	此类措施必须强有力、可靠，这一点很关键，因为在人们被迫留在家中且须与他人保持距离的情况下，可预测性至关重要。 

en-us	To be sure, food banks and efforts by charities and non-governmental organizations can also be mobilized to deliver food.  
zh-cn	当然，我们也可以动员粮食银行以及慈善机构和非政府组织来提供食物。 

en-us	What's the role of global food trade?  
zh-cn	全球食品贸易可以发挥什么作用？ 

en-us	Global food trade has to be kept going. 
zh-cn	全球食品贸易必须持续开展。 

en-us	One of every five calories people eat have crossed at least one international border, up more than 50 percent from 40 years ago.  
zh-cn	人们摄入的卡路里中，有五分之一至少跨越了一国的边界，跨界的卡路里数量比40年前增长了50％以上。 

en-us	Low and middle-income countries account for around a third of the world's food trade, which provides very significant contributions both to incomes and welfare. 
zh-cn	中低收入国家的粮食贸易量约占世界粮食贸易总量的三分之一，是其国民收入和福利的重要来源。 

en-us	Countries that depend on imported food are especially vulnerable to slowing trade volumes, especially if as has been happening their currencies decline.  
zh-cn	依赖食品进口的国家特别容易受到贸易量下降的影响，特别是在其本国货币出现贬值的情况下。 

en-us	While retail food prices are likely to rise everywhere, their impact is more adverse when sudden, extreme and volatile, and where food costs account for a larger share of household budgets and where spikes can have longer-term effects on human development and economic productivity in the future.  
zh-cn	尽管各地的零售食品价格都有可能上涨，但若食品价格突然出现极端波动，相关地区的食品支出占家庭预算比例较大，或食品价格飙升会对人口发展和经济生产率产生长期影响时，其产生的影响将更为不利。 

en-us	Countries should immediately review their trade and taxation policy options - and their likely impacts - and work in concert with one another to create a favorable environment for food trade.  
zh-cn	各国应立即审查其贸易和税收政策选择及其可能产生的影响，并携手合作，为粮食贸易创造有利的环境。 

en-us	Beggar-thy-neighbor policies, which popped up in the form of higher export taxes or outright export bans by some countries during the global food price crisis of 2008, must be prevented.  
zh-cn	必须防止近邻贫穷化政策（Beggar-thy-neighborpolicies）的出现，2008年全球食品价格危机期间，某些国家突然实施提高出口税或完全禁止出口的政策。 

en-us	They tend to produce copycat reactions, and they make things worse for everyone, not just for smaller trading partners.  
zh-cn	这会引发模仿行为，并使所有人（而非仅仅是小型贸易伙伴）的处境变得更糟。 

en-us	Open global food trade helps keep downstream food markets functioning.  
zh-cn	开放的全球食品贸易有助于保持下游食品市场的正常运转。 

en-us	Actually, it would help stabilize world food markets if harmful import tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers and value-added taxes were temporarily reduced.  
zh-cn	实际上，暂时减少不利的进口关税、非关税贸易壁垒和增值税，将有利于稳定世界食品市场。 

en-us	At the very least, we must make the Hippocratic Oath of doctors our own.  
zh-cn	无论如何，至少我们自己必须坚守希波克拉底誓言（注：HippocraticOath，医学界的职业道德誓言）。 

en-us	What about domestic markets?  
zh-cn	国内市场应采取什么措施呢？ 

en-us	The bulk of food-supply actions take place within countries, to be sure.  
zh-cn	当然，大多数食品供应行为都发生在各国国内。 

en-us	But there are still supply chains, which in the case of farmers are a complex web of interactions involving farmers and farm labourers, key inputs such as fertilizers, seeds and veterinary medicines, processing plants, freight distributors, retailers and more.  
zh-cn	但是仍然离不开供应链的参与，对农民而言，供应链是一个复杂的互动网络，涉及农民和农场工人，化肥、种子和兽药等主要投入品，加工厂，货运经销商，零售商，等等。 

en-us	A global pandemic will quickly strain such webs, so to prevent food shortages, every effort must be made to keep them intact and moving efficiently.  
zh-cn	新冠肺炎全球大流行将迅速向这些网络施加压力，因此，为了防止食品短缺，必须竭尽所能地使供应链保持完整，各要素能够有效地流动。 

en-us	While we all know that fruit that goes unpicked or unsold will go bad, similar interactive time constraints are common along the chain.  
zh-cn	我们都知道，未采摘或未售出的水果会变质，但在整个食物链中，类似的交互时间限制十分常见。 

en-us	Ultimately, farmers won't grow what nobody can buy, so the issue is about affordability but also availability and accessibility. 
zh-cn	农民最终会停止种植这些无法运往市场出售的农产品，所以这里的问题不仅关乎购买力，还关乎供应和获取。 

en-us	Insuring the safety of food-system workers is paramount, so on-site health measures, empowering sick-leave policies, 
zh-cn	确保粮食系统工人的安全至关重要，因此需要确保现场实施卫生措施，工人有权请病假， 

en-us	physical distancing instructions and capabilities need to be assured, and the same applies to the delivery sector. 
zh-cn	工作时保持一定的距离，并具备保持距离所需的客观条件，这些要求同样适用于运输部门。 

en-us	More than a fourth of the world's farm work is done by migrant workers, so to avoid labour shortages visa protocols should be expedited, regardless of how counterintuitive that may seem right now. 
zh-cn	全球有超过四分之一的农场工作由国际移民承担，因此，为避免劳动力短缺，应加快落实签证协议，尽管这在目前看来是一件有违直觉的事情。 

en-us	Just as frontline healthcare workers are hailed as heroes, those who staff the critical infrastructure of our food system deserve recognition and gratitude, not stigma and neglect, during these trying times. 
zh-cn	我们将前线医护人员誉为英雄，但在当前的艰难时期，那些为我们的粮食系统关键基础部门提供服务的人也应当得到认可和感激，而不是被羞辱和忽视。 

en-us	Meanwhile, visitors should be barred from production facilities as well as warehouses and wholesale markets.  
zh-cn	同时，应谢绝访客进入生产设施以及仓库和批发市场。 

en-us	End-sale points such as supermarkets have begun reducing hours and rotating staff, while contact-free delivery services are becoming more widely used. 
zh-cn	超市等终端销售点已开始缩短营业时长和实施员工轮流上班政策，无接触交付服务正变得越来越受欢迎。

en-us	E-commerce platforms have huge potential here as China has demonstrated.  
zh-cn	电子商务平台此时具有巨大的潜力，中国就佐证了这一点。 

en-us	What about smallholder farmers?  
zh-cn	小农户该怎么办？ 

en-us	A paradox of global hunger is that, despite their activity, smallholder farmers in the rural areas of developing countries are disproportionately at risk of food insecurity themselves, with low incomes a major reason for that.  
zh-cn	全球饥饿现象的一个悖论是，尽管发展中国家的农民从事农业活动，但他们自身却面临着极高的粮食不安全风险，收入低是主要原因。 

en-us	It would be tragic if that problem were to be exacerbated, and their ability to produce food reduced, at a time when we are trying to make sure that food supply remains adequate for everyone.  
zh-cn	在我们想法设想确保粮食供应总体保持充足的时候，如果这些人群的粮食不安全风险加剧，粮食生产能力下降，后果将不堪设想。 

en-us	So policy makers must pay attention to them.  
zh-cn	因此，决策者必须关注这些人口。 

en-us	What we know - and we saw it during lockdowns in West Africa during the Ebola crisis - is that restriction of movements and road closures curb farmers' access to markets both to buy inputs and sell products.  
zh-cn	我们目前所知道的，以及我们在西非埃博拉疫情封锁期间所看到的是，人员流动限制和道路封闭限制了农民出入市场，他们难以购买投入品和出售产品。 

en-us	They also reduce the availability of labour at peak seasonal times.  
zh-cn	这些措施还减少了收获高峰期的可用劳动力。 

en-us	The result is that fresh produce can accumulate without being sold, leading to food losses, while those who grow it lose income.  
zh-cn	结果是，新鲜农产品堆积、无从出售，导致食品损失，而且种植新鲜农产品的人失去了收入。 

en-us	This is a doubly relevant issue for Africa, where the continent's food supply is already threatened by the desert locust scourges.  
zh-cn	这一问题对非洲的影响尤为严重，因为非洲的沙漠蝗灾已经威胁到该大陆的食品供应。 

en-us	Another point here is that what we have seen so far is a spate of exceptional purchases of non-perishable foodstuffs.  
zh-cn	另外，我想我们已经发现，人们正在争相大量采购不易腐烂的食品。 

en-us	In Italy, demand for flour has spiked by 80 percent. 
zh-cn	在意大利，面粉需求猛增了80％。

en-us	Canned goods are all the rage.  
zh-cn	罐头食品十分抢手。 

en-us	Yet, due to psychology and the restrictions on movement, it's proven harder to sell fresh produce and fish, both of which are harder to store for future consumption.  
zh-cn	但是，由于心理作用和行动受限，新鲜农产品和鱼类的出售难度增加，这两类产品都很难储存起来以备将来消费。 

en-us	So what to do? 
zh-cn	那么该怎么办呢？

en-us	Temporary cash handouts for poor farmers are essential, as well as grants to restart production.  
zh-cn	临时向贫困农民发放现金是必不可少的措施，同时还需要拨款以重新启动生产。 

en-us	Banks can waive fees on farmers' loans and extend payment deadlines; capital can be injected into the agriculture sector to help small and medium-sized agribusinesses - and their work force - stay afloat.  
zh-cn	银行可以考虑免除农民贷款的费用并延长付款期限；可以向农业部门注入资金，以帮助中小型农业综合企业及其工人维持生计。 

en-us	Governments can during the emergency make a point of purchasing agricultural products from small farmers to establish strategic emergency reserves for humanitarian purposes.  
zh-cn	在紧急情况下，政府可以考虑向小农户购买农产品，以便建立战略紧急储备，用于人道主义救援目的。 

en-us	China's lockdown around the city of Wuhan offers some lessons.  
zh-cn	中国封锁武汉市的做法为我们提供了一些经验教训。 

en-us	The Vegetable Basket, conceived in 1988, was revived, allowing access to fresh and nutritious produce to urban residents and benefiting periurban farms in the vicinity.  
zh-cn	中国政府于1988年启动的"菜篮子"工程在本次疫情中再次发挥了巨大作用，城市居民得以获得新鲜和营养的农产品，周边的郊区农场也同时受益。 

en-us	In some provinces, local governments responded to bottlenecks in slaughterhouses by centralizing activity and paying for refrigeration costs to keep livestock activities functional and tap them for contributions to the ultimate goal of making sure that food is available for those unable to leave their homes.  
zh-cn	在一些省份，为解决屠宰场遇到的瓶颈问题，地方政府选择集中屠宰牲畜并支付冷藏费用，以保持畜牧活动正常进行，确保实现为居家抗疫人口输送食物这一最终目标。 

en-us	Are you optimistic?  
zh-cn	你觉得前景乐观吗？ 

en-us	We must and we will survive the coronavirus pandemic.  
zh-cn	我们必须、也必将战胜这场大流行。 

en-us	But we must understand - now - the enormous damage that measures taken to combat it will inflict on our global food system.  
zh-cn	但是，我们必须首先了解病毒遏制措施可能给全球粮食系统带来的巨大损伤。 

en-us	FAO has a lot of expertise on these matters and can help countries that need fast-tracked policy advice. 
zh-cn	粮农组织在应对此类问题方面拥有丰富的专业知识，可以为需要快速政策建议的国家提供帮助。 

en-us	By working together, we can mitigate that, and need to do so.  
zh-cn	通过携手努力，我们可以减轻疫情的影响，这是当务之急。 

en-us	Enacting the measures mentioned above, and actively seeking international cooperation, can help all countries brace for the battle to be engaged jointly.
zh-cn	采取上述措施，积极寻求国际合作，有助于各国为联合作战做好准备。 