zh-cn	问题：为什么新冠病毒感染患者在武汉和中国其他地方的死亡水平差别这么大？哪个数据更准确？ 
en-us	Q: Why is the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan so different from those in other parts of China? Which statistic is more accurate? 

zh-cn	答：截止到2020年3月9日，武汉确诊病例49965例，死亡2404例，病死率（死亡数占确诊数的比例）为4.8%。
en-us	A: As of 9 March 2020, 49,965 cases of novel coronavirus infection had been confirmed in Wuhan, of which 2,404 cases resulted in deaths–the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan is 4.8%. 

zh-cn	湖北除武汉确诊病例17795例，死亡620例，病死率为3.5%。
en-us	In other regions Hubei Province except Wuhan, there had been 17,795 confirmed cases, and 620 patient deaths, with a fatality rate of 3.5%. 

zh-cn	而中国大陆除湖北以外的地区（不含港澳台）确诊病例12994例，死亡112例，病死率为0.86%。
en-us	While in all of Mainland China (i.e. data of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan excluded) aside from Hubei, 12,994 confirmed cases were found, causing 112 deaths and a fatality rate of 0.86%. 

zh-cn	可以发现，不同地区的死亡水平差别非常大。
en-us	Apparently, there is a considerable gap in fatality rates of COVID-19 in different parts of China. 

zh-cn	人们在谈论新冠病毒的风险时，使用的数据不同就会得到大相径庭的判断。 
en-us	Consequently, with different data used, the discussion about the risk of the novel coronavirus would lead to drastically different conclusions. 

zh-cn	之所以数据差别很大，是因为影响病死率高低的因素除了病毒自身的致病性高低外，还包括患者的年龄结构和自身的身体条件、不同时间和地区的医疗状况、检测的范围以及统计病死率的时间点等很多因素。 
en-us	The fatality rate, and the variance thereof, however, is not only an indicator of the pathogenicity of the virus, but also depends on the age structure and preexisting health conditions of those infected, the operation of the healthcare system in different times and locations, and the accessibility of testing as well as the time when fatality rate is calculated. 

zh-cn	第一，患者的年龄结构和健康状况的结构是影响死亡率的重要因素。
en-us	Firstly, the age structure and the underlying health conditions of the patients are important factors behind the fatality rate. 

zh-cn	中国疾控中心对截至2月11日超过7万确诊和疑似病例的研究发现，总病死率为2.3%，但80岁以上的病死率为14.8%，有心血管疾病的为10.5%，而20-30岁的患者病死率为0.2%，无基础性疾病的患者为0.9%。
en-us	A research by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) on more than 70,000 confirmed and suspected cases of COVID-19 as of 11 February found a general fatality rate of 2.3%, while the fatality rate for patients over 80 years old being 14.8%, 10.5% for patients with cardiovascular diseases, 0.2% for patients between 20-30 years old, and 0.9% for patients without underlying disease. 

zh-cn	因此，防止高风险人群感染能有效降低死亡率。
en-us	Preventing novel coronavirus infection among high-risk groups, therefore, would significantly reduce the fatality rate of COVID-19. 

zh-cn	除了医院、养老院等脆弱人群集中的地方需要特别保护外，阻止疫情在社区特别是家庭内的传播也是保护老年群体的重要措施。
en-us	Important preventative measures include protection of elderly people from infection in hospitals and assisted living facilities, where susceptible groups are highly concentrated, as well as at home settings in the community. 

zh-cn	在武汉由于存在广泛的社区传播，患者中80岁以上的比例占5%，而全国（包括武汉）这一比例仅为3.2%。
en-us	Because of widespread community transmission in Wuhan, the elderly makes up 5% of the cases of infection, while in all of China including Wuhan, the number is only 3.2%. 

zh-cn	这是因为武汉之外的地区由于及早发现和隔离，有效控制了疫情从流动性较大、社会活动较多的中青年人群向高龄人群扩散。 
en-us	The timely detection and isolation of new cases outside Wuhan effectively prevented the epidemic from spreading from the more socially active young and middle-aged groups to the elderly and contributed to the lower fatality rate in general. 

zh-cn	第二，是否能得到及时的医疗救治以及当时、当地的医疗水平也会在很大程度上影响死亡水平。
en-us	Secondly, the accessibility of timely medical care and the operation of local healthcare systems also have great impact on the fatality rate. 

zh-cn	在武汉之外的地区，武汉封城给其他地区争取了宝贵的防控窗口期，各地积极开展防控工作，广大人民群众大幅度减少外出活动，有效控制了感染人数的上升，避免了对医疗资源的挤兑，而且做到了早发现早治疗，病死率就相对较低。
en-us	The lockdown measures in Wuhan gave other regions a valuable window of time for disease control and prevention, where necessary measures were taken to reduce interpersonal contact, mitigate the increase of new cases, and avoid the overloading of local healthcare systems. With early detection and early treatment of infected patients, the fatality rate of COVID-19 outside Wuhan is evidently lower. 

zh-cn	武汉在疫情爆发的早期，患者人数暴增，医疗资源极度紧张，此外，由于疫情首先爆发于武汉，医护人员不了解这一新出现的疾病，这些都导致了武汉较高的病死率。
en-us	In the early stage of the outbreak in Wuhan, however, the overload of medical facilities and limited knowledge about this new virus led to unsatisfactory treatment results in many cases and thus the higher fatality rate. 

zh-cn	但随着抗疫工作迅速开展，4万多来自全国的医护人员到达武汉，火神山雷神山医院投入使用，开设了方舱医院，实现应收尽收。
en-us	As a coordinated public health campaign against the epidemic, over 40,000 healthcare professionals arrived in Wuhan to provide support and two infectious disease hospitals (Huoshenshan Hospital and Leishenshan Hospital) and numerous makeshift hospitals started operating, which allowed all need for hospitalized care being met.

zh-cn	这些措施一方面极大扩充了武汉的救治力量，另一方面也通过降低了社区感染风险和轻症转为重症的风险，降低了医疗系统的压力，医疗资源严重不足的情况得到明显缓解。
en-us	 These measures significantly improved the capacity of the local healthcare system, lowered the risks of community transmission, and prevented the deterioration of patient health. The tension between the outbreak and the limited medical resources was thus considerably resolved. 

zh-cn	另外，国家诊疗方案已经更新到第七版，还编制了康复方案等一系列文件，医护人员对这一疾病的认识有了长足进步。
en-us	Additionally, the national treatment standard for COVID-19 has been updated to its seventh edition and post-hospitalization recovery plans were made, which indicated enhanced understanding of COVID-19. 

zh-cn	后期的武汉治疗能力明显提高。 
en-us	The treatment capacity in Wuhan has greatly improved in the later stage of the epidemic. 

zh-cn	第三，检测的范围以及统计病死率的时间点并不会影响疾病本身的风险，但却会影响我们对疾病风险认知和对防疫形势的判断。
en-us	Thirdly, although the range of testing and the time of fatality rate data collection do not change the risk of a disease, they can affect the judgment about the risk of the disease and the public health situation in general. 

zh-cn	由于新冠病毒的感染者中有大量是轻症，甚至有部分完全没有症状，如果不进行大范围的排查，仅靠患者主动求医很难发现全部感染者。
en-us	Since most cases of novel coronavirus infection present mild or no symptoms, it is extremely difficult to detect all cases of infection if no large-scale surveillance testing is implemented. 

zh-cn	而重症患者求医的可能性更大。这就可能导致病死率偏高。
en-us	Patients with more serious symptoms, on the other hand, are more likely to seek medical help, a tendency that would make the calculated fatality rate higher than it really is. 

zh-cn	另一方面，疾病的发展变化需要一定时间，真正准确的病亡率只有在疫情结束后才能得到。
en-us	Ultimately, considering the progression of an outbreak, an accurate calculation of fatality rate is only possible after the epidemic. 

zh-cn	2月24日华中科技大学等机构在《柳叶刀》上发表的研究显示，病人从发病到进入ICU平均为16天，从ICU到死亡平均为7天。
en-us	A study published in The Lancet by Huazhong University of Science and Technology with other organizations shows that the average duration from the onset of COVID-19 to the start of ICU care is 16 days, and that patient death typically happens after 7 days in the ICU. 

zh-cn	在疫情爆发早期，病死率较低，随着病程的发展，可能提高。
en-us	The fatality rate could be relatively low in the early outbreak and increase as the epidemic progresses. 

zh-cn	中国大陆截至3月9日，新增确诊病例为19例，已经持续处于低位，但仍有重症病例4794例，随着时间的推移。
en-us	On 9 March, 19 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Mainland China, a number that has remained low for some time, but there remain 4794 critical cases. 

zh-cn	病死率还会进一步上升。 
en-us	The fatality rate of COVID-19 may still increase as time goes by. 

zh-cn	因而，武汉的数据和全国的病死率数据反映了不同条件下新冠病毒感染的死亡风险，其他国家和地区在参考时需要综合考虑各种因素。
en-us	Therefore, the different fatality rates in Wuhan and nationwide indicated the different fatality risk of COVID-19 in varying conditions. Other countries and regions should take the whole set of factors into consideration in data usage. 

zh-cn	武汉的死亡率，特别是武汉在落实应收尽收政策之前患病者的病死率，目前虽然没有基于队列研究的准确数字，但很可能高于目前4.8%的水平。
en-us	The fatality rate in Wuhan, especially that when hospitalization needs were not fully met, is probably higher than the current figure of 4.8%, though no accurate data based on panel study are yet available. 

zh-cn	这代表了在一个千万人口的现代大城市，当医疗资源极度紧张、社区感染严重时可能出现的死亡水平。
en-us	This represents the fatality rate when serious community transmission happens in a modern city of 10 million population with an extremely overloaded healthcare system. 

zh-cn	而在湖北以外地区的病死率，则代表了在较好的社区防控、较丰富的医疗资源下的死亡水平，很可能在1%左右。
en-us	The fatality rate outside Wuhan, in comparison, represents the fatality level when good community prevention is in place and medical resources remain sufficient. 

zh-cn	要降低死亡风险，关键需要尽可能避免和减缓大范围的社区传播，避免疾病爆发对医疗资源的挤兑和高危人群的感染。
en-us	To reduce the risk of death caused by COVID-19, the essence is to prevent or delay widespread community transmission, thus avoiding the overload of public health systems and the infection of high-risk groups. 

zh-cn	另外，如果药物和疫苗的使用和研发取得重大进展，也能够大幅降低死亡率。
en-us	It would also considerably reduce the fatality rate if anti-viral medication and vaccines are successfully developed and applied. 

zh-cn	目前，全球正在通力合作，争取相关领域的突破。
en-us	The global research community is collaborating to make breakthrough in this field at the moment.