en-us	What began as a health emergency is now rapidly threatening to turn into a global economic crisis.
zh-cn	最初的突发卫生事件现在迅速威胁演变成全球经济危机。

en-us	Policy actions and coordination will be crucial in mitigating the impacts of the emergency on industry.
zh-cn	政策行动和协调对于减轻紧急事件对工业的影响至关重要。

en-us	As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to rise, UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned that
zh-cn	随着新冠病毒确诊病例数不断增加，联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯（António Guterres）警告说，

en-us	this pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since World War II.
zh-cn	这一流行病是第二次世界大战以来世界面临的最大挑战。

en-us	What began as a health emergency is now rapidly threatening to turn into a global economic crisis.
zh-cn	最初是突发卫生事件，现在正迅速威胁演变成全球经济危机。

en-us	Containment measures have shaken the foundations of the three main pillars of the global economy: demand, supply, and finance.
zh-cn	危机的遏制措施动摇了全球经济三大支柱——需求、供应和融资的根本。

en-us	Timely and coordinated action is crucial to contain the spread of the virus,
zh-cn	及时采取协调一致的行动对于遏制病毒传播，

en-us	to minimize the short-term impacts on the economy and to create conditions to redress global economic activity.
zh-cn	最大程度减少对经济的短期影响，以及为纠正全球经济活动创造条件至关重要。

en-us	A comprehensive evaluation of measures to significantly slow down infection rates is necessary
zh-cn	有必要对旨在显著降低感染率的措施进行全面评估，

en-us	to reduce the risk of exacerbating the ensuing economic downturn.
zh-cn	以降低随后经济衰退加剧的风险。

en-us	Some of these issues are addressed here with a focus on industrial development in both developed and developing countries.
zh-cn	我们在此会讨论其中一些问题，重点是发达国家和发展中国家的工业发展。

en-us	Industry is affected by supply- and demand-side effects
zh-cn	工业受供需关系的影响

en-us	It is too early for statistical data to fully capture the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on global demand and supply.
zh-cn	对于统计数据而言，要全面掌握新冠危机对全球需求和供应的影响还为时尚早。

en-us	Emerging evidence from China and a select number of developed countries suggest a drop in demand,
zh-cn	中国和部分发达国家的新证据表明，需求的下降是

en-us	proxied by the considerable decline in energy consumption and transport use, real estate-related commercial activity and other indicators of consumer behavior.
zh-cn	由于能源消耗和运输使用，房地产相关的商业活动以及其他消费者行为指标的大幅下降所致。

en-us	Social distancing measures mean reduced commercial activity.
zh-cn	社交距离措施意味着商业活动减少。

en-us	A combination of lower incomes and the fear of contagion have resulted in lower private spending,
zh-cn	较低的收入和对传染病的担心导致私人支出减少，

en-us	which an increase in government spending can only partly compensate for.
zh-cn	政府支出的增加只能部分弥补。

en-us	On the supply side, with factories either closed or operating well below capacity and large numbers of employees prevented from working, less output is being produced.
zh-cn	在供应方面，由于工厂关闭或进行低于产能运作，大量雇员无法工作，因此产量减少。

en-us	Production is further hampered by the lack of intermediate supplies.
zh-cn	缺乏中间供应进一步阻碍了生产。

en-us	The disruption of trade and its impact on international production networks and global value chains will need to be evaluated, but will likely be very pronounced.
zh-cn	贸易中断及其对国际生产网络和全球价值链的影响需要进行评估，但已经显而易见。

en-us	Governments around the world are introducing debt relief measures and offering businesses deferral programmes.
zh-cn	世界各国政府正在采取减免债务措施，并为企业提供延期方案。

en-us	It remains to be seen how many firms—especially SMEs—will succeed in absorbing the de facto accrued losses and survive the pandemic fairly unscathed.
zh-cn	有多少家公司，尤其是中小型企业，能够承受实际累计的亏损并在大流行中幸存，尚待观察。

en-us	The impacts differ across countries
zh-cn	疫情的影响因国家而异

en-us	The impact of this crisis and countries' ability to cope with it varies considerably.
zh-cn	这场危机所带来的的影响以及各国应对危机的能力差异很大。

en-us	While some countries are better prepared to cope with the pandemic and its impacts,
zh-cn	一些国家已准备好应对这场大流行病及其影响，

en-us	others are struggling to deal with either the COVID-19 outbreak or its impacts or with both;
zh-cn	而另一些国家正艰难地与新冠疫情或其影响甚至与二者同时做着斗争。

en-us	others yet will find it hard to apply any COVID containing measures or rely on the donor community.
zh-cn	甚至还有一些国家会发现很难采取任何限制新冠病毒的措施或很难找到援助。

en-us	The scope of the pandemic's impact is not confined to the national level;
zh-cn	这场大流行病的影响范围并不局限于国家层面，

en-us	differences in impact will be observed across industries, firms and households alike.
zh-cn	对于不同行业、企业和家庭都会有不同程度的影响。

en-us	At the national level, several pre-emptive policy measures may help save lives, provide support for businesses to stay afloat,
zh-cn	而在国家层面，一些先行政策或许能拯救更多生命、维持企业运行、

en-us	protect employment and gear up the economy to weather the storm.
zh-cn	保护就业和促进经济发展，以渡时艰。

en-us	Although such policies are directed towards a large majority, many are falling through the cracks.
zh-cn	尽管此类政策直接针对大多数人，但很多政策正陷入困境。

en-us	Such containment measures can only be effective at the individual, household, firm or even country level if sufficient savings and cash flow are available.
zh-cn	因为只有当储蓄充足和现金流顺畅的情况下，这些遏制措施才能有效地实施于个人、家庭、公司，甚至国家层面。

en-us	Just like households that rely on daily wage earnings will not be able to afford to comply with social distancing measures,
zh-cn	就像依靠每日薪水生活的家庭无力遵守“限制社交距离”的措施，

en-us	some countries will not be able to afford to shut down substantial parts of their economy to contain the spread of the virus.
zh-cn	一些国家也无法承受关停其经济命脉以遏制病毒的传播。

en-us	Even if this were possible, the duration of such drastic measures highly depends on how robust a country's social welfare system is, if one exists at all.
zh-cn	即便这是可以实现的，这种严厉措施的持续时间很大程度上取决于一个国家的社会福利体系是否健全。

en-us	The community impacts in countries with a weak social welfare system are likely be severe, leading to deteriorating health conditions
zh-cn	对于社会福利制度薄弱的国家而言，病毒的社区影响很可能会非常严重，民众的健康状况会急剧恶化，

en-us	that will quickly overwhelm the already fragile health care system and bring the economy to its knees.
zh-cn	这将迅速压垮本就脆弱的医疗保健系统，并给经济带来沉重打击。

en-us	The ability to manage both the emergency situation and the recovery phase also hinges on the individual country’s economic structure.
zh-cn	而处理紧急情况和复苏阶段的能力也取决于各个国家的经济结构。

en-us	This pandemic will further intensify the effects of persistent inequalities,
zh-cn	此次的大流行病将进一步加剧持续的不平等现象。

en-us	with highly vulnerable households, businesses and countries expected to suffer the highest losses.
zh-cn	极度脆弱的家庭、企业和国家将遭受巨大的损失。

en-us	They would certainly benefit most from organized global collective action.
zh-cn	而他们无疑将从有组织的全球集体行动中受益良多。

en-us	Progress towards achieving the SDGs will likely be postponed and any advancement made so far may very well suffer a setback.
zh-cn	实现可持续发展目标的进程很可能会被推迟，且迄今为止取得的任何进展都很可能遭到破坏。

en-us	The role of industry and industrial development to contribute to the advancement of the SDGs will be seriously jeopardized.
zh-cn	工业和工业发展对于促进可持续发展目标方面的作用将受到严重损害。

en-us	Immediate reactions from the manufacturing sector
zh-cn	制造业的及时反应

en-us	Industrial firms have responded to the spread of COVID-19 in various ways.
zh-cn	工业企业已采用各种方式应对新冠病毒的传播。

en-us	Many are trying to solve immediate cash-flow challenges by cutting costs and seeking debt relief and compensation from their governments.
zh-cn	许多公司正试图通过削减开支、寻求政府的债务减免和补偿金来解决眼下现金流的危机。

en-us	Employees are being put on short-time working and are requested to take leave to reduce the wage burden.
zh-cn	员工们被安排进行短期工作，并被要求休假以减轻公司的工资开销。

en-us	The ensuing personal income loss will lower both consumption and company revenues.
zh-cn	但随之而来的个人收入损失也将降低消费和公司收入。

en-us	Meanwhile, a number of companies are repurposing their production lines, switching to the production of urgently needed goods such as ventilators, masks and intensive care units.
zh-cn	与此同时，一些公司正在重整生产线，转向生产呼吸机、口罩和重症监护室等急需物资。

en-us	Many companies have also reorganized their businesses to make use of telecommuting and e-commerce.
zh-cn	许多公司还重组了业务，以开展远程办公和电子商务。

en-us	It remains to be seen how many businesses will be able to absorb the shock waves;
zh-cn	有多少公司可以挺过这次危机还有待观察。

en-us	those with a higher cash flow and a more diversified investment portfolio will certainly fare better.
zh-cn	而那些拥有更多自由现金流和投资更多元化的公司显然会表现得更好。

en-us	Extensive debt guarantees and credit support programmes should cushion(at least partially) the need for liquidity,
zh-cn	广泛的债务担保和信贷支持计划应该能（至少部分地）缓解对资金流动性的需求，

en-us	but may need to be combined with mechanisms to defer debt repayments to a later stage.
zh-cn	但可能需要与后期债务延期偿还机制结合起来。

en-us	Further to credit support, some governments are already considering subsidies for the most severely affected businesses.
zh-cn	除了提供信贷支持，一些政府已经在考虑为受影响最严重的企业提供补贴。

en-us	Finally, some firms have started rethinking their business models, with supply shortages from overseas leading to an increase in procurement of inputs from local or regional businesses.
zh-cn	最后，由于海外供应短缺，导致从本地或区域性企业采购投入增加，一些公司已开始重新考虑其商业模式。

en-us	The full extent of these measures will only become evident after the shocks associated with COVID-19 have settled.
zh-cn	而只有在新冠疫情带来的冲击得到解决后，这些政府措施的全部影响才会逐渐显现。

en-us	How governments can help
zh-cn	政府该如何提供帮助

en-us	Businesses will not be able to weather the economic downturn on their own.
zh-cn	企业无法靠自身熬过经济衰退。

en-us	Policy actions and coordination will be crucial in mitigating the impacts of the crisis.
zh-cn	政策的实施与协同合作对于减轻危机的影响至关重要。

en-us	Many governments have already adopted a wide array of policies,
zh-cn	许多政府已经制定了大量政策 ，

en-us	including exchange rate adjustments and balance of payments measures, monetary policies as well as fiscal measures.
zh-cn	包括汇率调整和国际收支措施，货币政策以及财政措施。在微观经济层面上的解决方案也是必要的。

en-us	Solutions at the microeconomic level will also, however, be necessary, as the scale of the current supply shock (a general forced shutdown of economic activity) is unprecedented,
zh-cn	这是由于目前供给遭受冲击的规模（经济活动普遍被迫中止）是前所未有的，

en-us	and adequate policy responses may in part lie outside the traditional mix of interventions.
zh-cn	适当的应对政策可能部分会超出传统的干预措施范围。

en-us	Policy measures can be structured around four target areas:
zh-cn	政策措施可以围绕四个目标领域制定：

en-us	1. Measures to keep businesses afloat during COVID-19 containment efforts.
zh-cn	1. 抗击新冠疫情期间保持企业运转的措施：

en-us	Such measures include the introduction of actions to ensure liquidity for businesses to tackle immediate cash flow challenges and support business continuity.
zh-cn	这些措施包括采取行动确保商业的流动性，来应对当前的现金流问题并支持业务的连续性。

en-us	This might include subsidizing publicly-provided inputs, temporary debt relief and compensation through special credit lines and guarantees,
zh-cn	包括补贴公共投入，通过特殊信贷额度和担保进行临时债务减免和赔偿，

en-us	deferral of financial obligations and, where possible, revisiting the conditions for firms to file for bankruptcy.
zh-cn	推迟履行金融义务，并在可能的情况下重新考虑企业申请破产的条件。

en-us	Partial closures to accommodate fluctuations in demand may also be an option.
zh-cn	也可以选择对企业部分关闭以适应需求波动。

en-us	Governments can defer the payment of taxes, duties and other government fees.
zh-cn	政府可以推迟企业支付税款，关税和其他政府费用的期限。

en-us	2. Measures to maintain employment during COVID-19 containment efforts:
zh-cn	2.  抗击新冠疫情期间维持就业的措施：

en-us	These measures are aimed at supporting employee retention.
zh-cn	这些措施的目的是支持员工留任。

en-us	For instance, public health care systems could cover the wages of workers and employees who have to quarantine.
zh-cn	例如，公共卫生保健系统可以支付需要隔离的工人和雇员的工资。

en-us	Furthermore, temporary regulations could be introduced to prevent large-scale layoffs and alternative work arrangements,
zh-cn	此外，可以出台临时规定，防止大规模裁员，提出备选工作安排，

en-us	including short-term leave, telecommuting and cost sharing through partial salary adjustments.
zh-cn	包括短期休假，远程办公和通过部分薪酬调整来分担费用。

en-us	3. Measures to adapt businesses during COVID-19 containment efforts:
zh-cn	3. 抗击新冠疫情期间调整业务的措施：

en-us	Firms can be incentivized to shift to other means of doing business,
zh-cn	激励公司转向其他的经营方式，

en-us	for example, by improving their web presence, advertising via social media, enhancing customer service functions via phone and online, and engaging in e-commerce.
zh-cn	比如，改善其网络影响力，通过社交媒体进行推广，通过电话和在线途径增强客户服务功能以及开展电子商务业务。

en-us	Companies should be supported in the provision of higher workplace safety standards and better protection for workers.
zh-cn	政府应支持公司提高工作场所安全标准并为工人提供更好的保护。

en-us	Moreover, governments can support the private sector by increasing the procurement capacity of the health care system, its service delivery and its ability to conduct research.
zh-cn	此外，政府可以通过提高卫生保健系统的采购能力，以及其提供服务和开展研究的能力来支持私营部门。

en-us	Funds can be established that provide grants and loans to businesses that produce the goods and services necessary to curb COVID-19
zh-cn	政府可以建立基金，给针对遏制新型冠状病毒传播生产产品及提供服务的企业提供津贴和贷款，

en-us	and to support the development of COVID-19-related (virtual) industrial clusters.
zh-cn	以及支持与新冠病毒相关的（虚拟）产业集群的发展。

en-us	4. Measures to reorient businesses after COVID-19 containment efforts:
zh-cn	4. 新冠疫情过后重新定向业务的措施：

en-us	Governments can implement measures that prepare businesses for the new post-COVID-19 economic conditions and realities.
zh-cn	政府可以采取措施，使企业为新冠疫情过后的经济状况和现实做好准备。

en-us	Industrial development may follow a path of increased risk aversion to protect the basis of domestic industries and be inclined to promote most-crucial production
zh-cn	工业发展可能会沿着更大程度上规避风险的轨迹进行，以保护国内工业的基础，并倾向于生产最关键的商品

en-us	(including food products, health care products, telecommunications technology and inputs for local manufacturing).
zh-cn	（包括食品、医疗产品、电信技术和本地制造业应用的原料）。

en-us	In the medium run, governments, particularly in developing countries,
zh-cn	从中期来看，鉴于全球价值链可能中断，各国政府，特别是发展中国家的政府

en-us	will need to promote initiatives to secure the supply of such products in view of possible disruptions in global value chains.
zh-cn	将需要主动采取行动，以确保此类产品的供应。

en-us	Firms will need to invest in new business processes and in technological innovation.
zh-cn	企业将需要对新的业务流程和技术创新进行投资。

en-us	Governments can support these efforts by monitoring market conditions and developing indicators allowing firms to quickly identify emerging market needs and changes in consumer behavior.
zh-cn	各国政府可以通过观察市场状况和制定使公司能够快速确定新兴市场需求和消费者行为变化的指标来支持这些工作。

en-us	Governments could also provide public funding schemes to facilitate investment in internalizing production and establishing new supplier networks
zh-cn	各国政府还可以制定公共资金计划，以促进对内部化生产和建立新的供应商网络的投资。

en-us	Getting post-COVID ready
zh-cn	为新冠疫情后做好准备

en-us	It remains to be seen how quickly economies around the world will be able to resume their operations, and what this recovery will look like.
zh-cn	世界各经济体的恢复运转速度，以及经济复苏步伐都有待观察。

en-us	The longer the COVID-19 containment measures stay in place, the more challenging and taxing the recovery process will be, magnifying the need for public support.
zh-cn	遏制新冠病毒措施持续的时间越长，恢复过程将面临的挑战和负担就越大，也就加大了对公共支持的需要。

en-us	In the short term, policy measures should counteract increased risk aversion and prevent flight-to-liquidity,
zh-cn	在短期内，政策措施应抵消增加的风险规避并防止流动性转移，

en-us	which could exacerbate financial stress, particularly in emerging and developing markets,
zh-cn	以防止特别是在新兴市场和发展中市场中财务压力加剧，

en-us	and thus curtailing access to the resources needed to manage the anticipated consequences of COVID-19 on the economy.
zh-cn	以及因此造成的用来应对疫情对经济产生预期后果所需资源的减少。

en-us	On the supply side, policies should ensure continued protection of workers, a quick rebooting of domestic supply as well as restoring and eventually reshaping the functioning of global value chains.
zh-cn	在供应方面，政策应该保证对工人持续的保护，快速重启国内供应，以及恢复并最终重塑全球价值链的功能。

en-us	On the demand side, public procurement and innovation in products and processes may be necessary, including investments in new technologies.
zh-cn	在需求方面，有必要对产品和生产流程进行公共采购和创新，包括对新兴技术的投资。

en-us	For many developing countries, sustainable long-term recovery will require a commitment to bridge capability gaps
zh-cn	对于许多发展中国家来说，长期可持续的复苏过程需要致力于弥合能力差距，

en-us	and improve the performance of local health care systems, including links to local manufacturing capacities.
zh-cn	根据当地生产制造能力提高当地医疗保健系统的水平。

en-us	UNIDO, together with the UN system, would have the necessary competencies to take the lead by developing an agenda for the coordination of efforts
zh-cn	工发组织将与联合国系统一起牵头通过制定议程，

en-us	to support the most vulnerable and the most severely affected industries worldwide.
zh-cn	来协调支持世界上最脆弱和受影响最严重的行业。

en-us	For economies to reopen as soon as the spread of COVID-19 has been contained,
zh-cn	为了使经济体在新冠病毒的传播被遏制后立即恢复正常运转，

en-us	flexibility and close monitoring will be necessary to allow for an orderly phasing out of interventions, to incentivize business restructuring
zh-cn	就必须保证灵活性和密切监控，以便有序地逐步取消干预措施，来激励企业重组，

en-us	and avoid policy capture or free-riding behaviors.
zh-cn	并避免钻政策空子或搭便车的行为。

en-us	The recovery from the shock of COVID-19 will likely not allow a return to pre-crisis normality.
zh-cn	从新冠疫情冲击中复苏，我们可能无法回到危机前的正常水平。

en-us	Policies to identify new alternatives for the organization of global production networks and to build, diversify and reorient productive capabilities
zh-cn	为组织全球生产网络寻找新的替代方案，以及建立、多样化和重新定位生产能力的政策，

en-us	will represent an important component of the strategies to build resilience against future disruptions.
zh-cn	将成为建设抵御未来危机战略的重要组成部分。