en-us	COVID-19 Pandemic and the Asia-Pacific Region: Lowest Growth Since the 1960s
zh-cn	COVID-19疫情与亚太地区：上世纪60年代以来的最低经济增速

en-us	This is a crisis like no other.
zh-cn	这是一场截然不同的危机。

en-us	It is worse than the Global Financial Crisis, and Asia is not immune.
zh-cn	它比全球金融危机更严重，亚洲也不能幸免。

en-us	While there is huge uncertainty about 2020 growth prospects, and even more so about the 2021 outlook, the impact of the coronavirus on the region will—across the board—be severe and unprecedented.
zh-cn	2020年增长前景有极大不确定性，2021年前景更是如此，但冠状病毒将给整个亚太地区带来严重和前所未有的影响。

en-us	Growth in Asia is expected to stall at zero percent in 2020.
zh-cn	亚洲的经济增长预计在2020年将停滞在零增长。

en-us	This is the worst growth performance in almost 60 years, including during the Global Financial Crisis (4.7 percent) and the Asian Financial Crisis (1.3 percent).
zh-cn	这是近60年来的最差增长表现，包括在全球金融危机（当时的增长率是4.7%）和亚洲金融危机（1.3%）期间。

en-us	That said, Asia still looks to fare better than other regions in terms of activity.
zh-cn	不过，从经济活动看，亚洲的情况仍好于其他地区。

en-us	Downward revisions are substantial, ranging from 3.5 percentage points in the case of Korea—which appears to have managed to slow the spread of the coronavirus while minimizing prolonged production shutdowns—to over 9 percentage points in the case of Australia, Thailand and New Zealand—all hit by the global tourism slowdown, and in the case of Australia by lower commodity prices.
zh-cn	增长预测的下调幅度很大，从3.5个百分点到超过9个百分点不等：韩国看来设法减缓了病毒传播，同时尽可能避免了生产的长期停工，其增长预测下调了3.5个百分点，澳大利亚、泰国和新西兰都受到全球旅游业下滑的打击，澳大利亚还受到大宗商品价格下跌的冲击，这些国家的增长预测下调幅度超过9个百分点。

en-us	Within the region, Pacific Island countries are among the most vulnerable given the limited fiscal space, as well as comparatively underdeveloped health infrastructure.
zh-cn	在亚太地区内，太平洋岛国最为脆弱，因为它们的财政空间有限，医疗卫生基础设施相对欠发达。

en-us	Double slowdown
zh-cn	双重下滑

en-us	In addition to the impact from domestic containment measures and social distancing, two key factors are shaping the outlook for Asia:
zh-cn	除了国内防控措施和保持社交距离做法带来的影响外，两个关键因素将决定亚洲的前景：

en-us	The Global slowdown: The global economy is expected to contract in 2020 by 3 percent—the worst recession since the Great Depression.
zh-cn	全球增长减缓：全球经济预计在2020年将收缩3%——这是自“大萧条”以来的最严重经济衰退。

en-us	This is a synchronized contraction, a sudden global shutdown.
zh-cn	这是一种同步收缩，全球经济突然停滞。

en-us	Asia’s key trading partners are expected to contract sharply, including the United States by 6.0 percent and Europe by 6.6 percent.
zh-cn	亚洲的主要贸易伙伴预计将急剧收缩，包括美国将收缩6.0%，欧洲将收缩6.6%。

en-us	China slowdown: China’s growth is projected to decline from 6.1 percent in 2019 to 1.2 percent 2020.
zh-cn	中国增长放缓：中国经济增速预计将从2019年6.1%下降到2020年的1.2%。

en-us	This sharply contrasts with China’s growth performance during the Global Financial Crisis, which was little changed at 9.4 percent in 2009 thanks to the important fiscal stimulus of about 8 percent of GDP.
zh-cn	这与中国在全球金融危机期间增长表现形成鲜明对照，当时中国实施了约相当于GDP 8%的重要财政刺激，增长率保持9.4%的水平，基本没有变化。

en-us	We cannot expect that magnitude of stimulus this time, and China won’t help Asia’s growth as it did in 2009.
zh-cn	我们不能期望这次还能有如此大规模的刺激，而且，中国也不能如2009年那样帮助支持亚洲的增长。

en-us	Prospects for 2021, while highly uncertain, are for strong growth.
zh-cn	2021年的前景虽然高度不确定，但预期将实现强劲增长。

en-us	If containment measures work, and with substantial policy stimulus to reduce “scarring,” growth in Asia is expected to rebound strongly—more so than during the Global Financial Crisis.
zh-cn	如果防控措施发挥作用，并且实施大规模刺激以减少“创伤”，亚洲的增长预计将强劲回升，比全球金融危机期间回升力度更大。

en-us	But there is no room for complacency.
zh-cn	但是，不存在任何自满的余地。

en-us	The region is experiencing different stages of the pandemic.
zh-cn	该地区各经济体处于疫情的不同阶段。

en-us	China’s economy is beginning to get back to work, other economies are imposing tighter lockdowns, and some are experiencing a second wave of virus infections.
zh-cn	中国经济正开始恢复，其他一些经济体正在实行更严格的封锁，而另一些经济体正经历第二波病毒感染。

en-us	Much depends on the spread of the virus and on how policies respond.
zh-cn	前景在很大程度上取决于病毒的传播速度和政策如何应对。

en-us	Policy priorities
zh-cn	政策优先事项

en-us	This is a crisis like no other.
zh-cn	这是一场截然不同的危机。

en-us	It requires a comprehensive and coordinated policy response.
zh-cn	为此，必须采取全面、协调一致的应对政策。

en-us	The priority is to support and protect the health sector to contain the virus and introduce measures that slow contagion.
zh-cn	当务之急是支持和保护医疗卫生部门，以控制病毒，并采取减缓病毒蔓延的措施。

en-us	If there is not enough space within countries’ budgets, they will need to re-prioritize other spending.
zh-cn	一国如果没有足够的预算空间，则需要重新安排其他支出的优先次序。

en-us	Containment measures are severely affecting economies.
zh-cn	防控措施正在对经济造成严重影响。

en-us	Targeted support to hardest-hit households and firms is needed.
zh-cn	需要对受冲击最严重的家庭和企业提供有针对性的支持。

en-us	This is a real economic shock—unlike the Global Financial Crisis—and requires protecting people, jobs, and industries directly, not just through financial institutions.
zh-cn	这是一次对实体经济的冲击——与全球金融危机不同——需要直接保护人民、就业和产业，而不仅仅是通过金融机构提供保护。

en-us	The pandemic is also affecting financial markets and how they function.
zh-cn	疫情也在影响金融市场及其运作方式。

en-us	Monetary policy should be used wisely to provide ample liquidity, ease financial stress of industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, and, if necessary, relax macroprudential regulations temporarily.
zh-cn	应明智地运用货币政策，以提供充足的流动性，缓解各行业和中小企业的财务压力，并在必要时暂时放松宏观审慎监管。

en-us	External pressures need to be contained.
zh-cn	需要控制外部压力。

en-us	Where needed, bilateral and multilateral swap lines and financial support from the multilateral institutions should be sought.
zh-cn	必要时，应寻求双边和多边互换额度以及多边机构的资金支持。

en-us	In the absence of swap lines, foreign-exchange market interventions and capital controls may be the alternatives.
zh-cn	在没有互换额度的情况下，外汇市场干预和资本管制可以作为替代措施。

en-us	Targeted support, combined with domestic demand stimulus in a recovery, will help to reduce scarring, but it needs to reach people and smaller firms.
zh-cn	有针对性的支持，加上复苏期间的国内需求刺激，将有助于减少经济创伤，但这些措施需要惠及个人和小企业。

en-us	Asian economies have taken several initiatives in this direction with direct support for health sectors, direct fiscal stimulus packages—which in some advanced Asian economies are substantially bigger than the response during the Global Financial Crisis.
zh-cn	亚洲经济体已经朝着这个方向采取若干举措，对卫生部门提供直接支持，并实施直接的一揽子财政刺激——在一些亚洲发达经济体，这种财政刺激的规模远远大于全球金融危机期间的刺激规模。

en-us	And many economies have put in place measures aimed at helping small and medium-sized enterprises.
zh-cn	另外，许多经济体采取了旨在帮助中小企业的措施。

en-us	Central banks across the region have moved to provide ample liquidity, cut interest rates and some have used quantitative easing.
zh-cn	该地区的中央银行提供了充足的流动性，降低了利率，一些中央银行还采用了量化宽松措施。

en-us	For example, the Bank of Japan has expanded its repurchase operations, coordinated with other central banks around the world in efforts to ensure smooth functioning of the market, and introduced measures to facilitate corporate financing.
zh-cn	例如，日本银行在与其他中央银行协调基础上，扩大了其回购操作，以确保市场平稳运行，并且实施了便利企业融资的措施。

en-us	But additional actions may be needed for emerging-market Asian economies that have limited space for increased spending in their budgets.
zh-cn	但是，对于预算中增加支出的空间有限的亚洲新兴市场经济体，可能需要进一步采取行动。

en-us	If the situation deteriorates, many emerging economies may to be forced to adopt a “whatever it takes” approach, despite their budget constraints and non-internationalized currencies.
zh-cn	如果形势恶化，许多新兴经济体可能被迫采取“不惜一切代价”的方法，尽管其预算面临约束，且其货币不是国际化货币。

en-us	In many cases, they will face policy trade-offs.
zh-cn	许多国家将面临政策取舍。

en-us	For example, central bankers are considering buying government bonds in the primary market to support critical financial lifelines to smaller firms and households to avoid mass layoffs and defaults.
zh-cn	例如，中央银行正考虑在一级市场购买政府债券，以支持对中小企业和家庭的关键资金救助，避免发生大面积裁员和违约。

en-us	An alternative to direct monetization could be to use the central bank’s balance sheet more flexibly and aggressively to support bank lending to small and medium-sized enterprises through risk-sharing with the government.
zh-cn	直接货币化的另一种选择是，更灵活地使用中央银行资产负债表，通过与政府共同分担风险的方式来积极支持银行对中小企业的贷款。

en-us	In doing so, there can be a role for temporary outflow capital controls to help ensure stability in the face of large capital flows, balance sheet mismatches, and limited scope to use other policy tools.
zh-cn	在这方面，临时的资本外流管制可以发挥作用，以确保在资本大量流动、资产负债表错配和动用其他政策工具空间有限的情况下保持稳定。