en-us	After a decade of uninterrupted growth, the global economy came to a sudden halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic.  
zh-cn	全球经济在历经十年不间断的增长后，由于新冠疫情爆发戛然而止。

en-us	The question now is not whether there will be a global recession but how deep it will be—and how quickly countries can overcome the health crisis and pave the way for economic recovery. 
zh-cn	现在的问题不是会不会出现全球经济衰退，而是衰退到何种深度，是各国能以多快速度克服卫生危机，为经济复苏铺平道路。 

en-us	The answers to these questions will be particularly important for developing economies, which are likely to be hit hardest by the crisis. 
zh-cn	这些问题的答案对于发展中国家尤其重要，因为他们受危机影响可能最大。 

en-us	Even before the COVID-19 outbreak, most developing countries were already on a shakier economic footing than they were in the run-up to the 2009 global recession. Their growth had dropped to its lowest level of the past decade. 
zh-cn	即使是在新冠疫情爆发之前，与2009年经济衰退之前相比，大多数发展中国家的经济基础已经更为动摇，增速已降至过去十年的最低点，2009年之前的财政和经常账户盈余已变为巨额赤字，外债达到历史高位。 

en-us	These economies would have been hard pressed, in short, to mount an effective response even to a moderate global downturn. 
zh-cn	简言之，这些经济体业已不堪重负，即使面对全球经济温和下滑都难以作出有效的应对。

en-us	What they got instead was a simultaneous health and economic calamity without parallel in modern times. 
zh-cn	而他们目前所遭遇的是近代史上无以伦比的卫生和经济双重灾难。 

en-us	At the World Bank Group, we are in the process of putting together detailed forecasts for our Global Economic Prospects report, which will be released in early June. 
zh-cn	在世界银行集团，我们正在为定于6月初发布的《全球经济展望》报告准备详尽的预测。

en-us	The preliminary baseline scenario under consideration indicates that many developing economies are likely to tumble into outright recessions in 2020 before growth resumes next year.  
zh-cn	酝酿中的初步基线情景显示，许多发展中国家可能在2020年跌入全面衰退，明年才能恢复增长。 

en-us	This grim projection assumes that things will quickly go back to normal. 
zh-cn	这一悲观的预测假设情况会很快恢复正常。

en-us	For example, it assumes that social distancing and other mitigation measures are removed within three months and that all major economies resume rapid growth in the third quarter of 2020. It also assumes that financial markets will regain stability as investor confidence is swiftly restored. 
zh-cn	例如，预测假设保持社交距离及其他防疫措施在3个月内取消，2020年第三季度所有主要经济体恢复快速增长，并假设随着投资者信心快速恢复，金融市场将重归稳定，此外还假定在未来18个月将持续实行大规模的货币和财政支持方案。 

en-us	In a nutshell, it assumes that everything goes right. 
zh-cn	总之，预测假设一切进展顺利。

en-us	Even under these assumptions, the global economy would fall into a deep recession in 2020 and output of developing economies would shrink by roughly 2 percent.  
zh-cn	即使是在这些假设下，全球经济在2020年仍会陷入深度衰退，发展中经济体的产出将收缩2%左右。

en-us	This would not just mark the first contraction in these economies since 1960 but would also imply an astonishingly weak growth outcome relative to their average growth of 4.6 percent over the past sixty years. 
zh-cn	这不仅标志着这些经济体自1960年以来的首次收缩，也意味着与过去六年平均4.6%的增长相比经济增长出现惊人的疲软。 

en-us	Growth outcomes could be considerably worse if just one assumption fails to materialize. 
zh-cn	假如其中一个假设未能实现，那么增长结果还会进一步恶化。

en-us	Even if three months of mitigation measures prove effective in halting the pandemic, investors and households could remain skittish or local or global supply chains may not be restored.  Households could curb consumption and businesses could postpone investments until they are confident of a robust recovery. 
zh-cn	即使三个月的防疫措施证明对阻止疫情蔓延有效，投资者和居民可能仍会谨小慎微，本地或全球供应链未必能够恢复，居民可能抑制消费，企业可能推迟投资，等到确信强劲复苏后才肯出手，而国际旅行的恢复可能会断断续续。

en-us	Under such a scenario, the hit to global output would be larger—and developing economies would end up experiencing a deeper recession that could reduce their output by nearly 3 percent.  
zh-cn	在这样一种情景下，对全球产出的打击会更大，发展中经济体最终可能遭遇更深层的经济衰退，可能导致产出下降近3%。 

en-us	Sharp economic contractions tend to cause long-lasting damage in developing economies, lowering potential growth for an extended period after the recession, with grave impact on poverty and inequality. 
zh-cn	经济大幅收缩往往会给发展中经济体造成持久的损害，在衰退后很长一段时间降低潜在增长率，对贫困和不平等带来严重影响。 

en-us	Policymakers have a narrow window to limit the pain—and shorten the duration—of the crisis. 
zh-cn	在限制危机带来的痛苦和缩短危机持续时间方面，政策制定者的机会稍纵即逝。

en-us	In developing countries, policymakers should do the best they can, focusing on the immediate priority—defusing the health crisis. 
zh-cn	在发展中国家，政策制定者应当尽其所能，专注于眼前的优先事项——化解卫生危机。

en-us	They need to adopt policies that save lives, safeguard livelihoods, help businesses weather the downturn, and maintain access to essential public services—tailored to local circumstances as needed. 
zh-cn	他们需要采取政策措施挽救生命，保护生计，帮助企业度过经济下滑，并维持基本公共服务提供——必要时根据本地情况量体裁衣。

en-us	They should also undertake measures to prevent the health crisis from flaring into a financial crisis. 
zh-cn	他们也应当采取措施防止卫生危机演变为金融危机。 

en-us	But most developing countries cannot cope alone with the crisis because their circumstances are even more difficult. 
zh-cn	但是，大多数发展中国家无法单独应对危机，因为他们的情况更加困难。

en-us	Health systems in some of these economies are grossly underequipped. 
zh-cn	其中有些经济体的卫生系统薄弱。

en-us	Large segments of the population make their living in informal jobs, which means they lack a safety net and will be harder to reach and support in the midst of the crisis. 
zh-cn	大量人口靠非正规工作谋生，这意味着他们缺乏社会保障，在危机中更难以获得救助。

en-us	Small- and medium-size firms tend to be a mainstay of economic activity but they typically lack access to capital, which means a liquidity problem for these firms could quickly turn into a solvency crisis. 
zh-cn	中小企业往往是经济活动的一个支柱，但他们通常缺少获得资金的渠道，这意味着这些企业的流动性问题有可能很快变为偿付能力危机。 

en-us	Developing economies likely to be hit hardest—those dependent on trade, commodities or tourism—tend to have higher concentrations of people in extreme poverty. 
zh-cn	有可能受影响的最大发展中经济体（那些依赖贸易、大宗商品或旅游业的发展中经济体），往往集中了更多的极端贫困人口。

en-us	In the face of income losses, such populations would have a more difficult time complying with mitigation measures. 
zh-cn	在面临收入损失时，这些人口往往更难遵守防疫措施。

en-us	Overall, most developing countries lack the resources and the fiscal space necessary to employ policy packages that are large enough to support economic activity and get ahead of the crisis. 
zh-cn	总体来看，大多数发展中国家缺乏必要的资源和财政空间，难以采取规模足够大的政策方案来支持经济活动和战胜危机。 

en-us	The World Bank Group and the IMF have responded in unprecedented ways, swiftly committing to deploy virtually all their lending capacity over the next 15 months to help developing economies manage the immediate response and speed up the recovery. 
zh-cn	世界银行集团和国际货币基金组织以前所未有的方式做出响应，快速承诺在未来15个月部署基本上全部贷款能力，以帮助发展中经济体管理当前的应对和加快复苏。

en-us	And the G20 economies agreed to suspend official bilateral debt repayments for the poorest countries—at least through 2020—so that they can invest these resources in fighting the pandemic. 
zh-cn	二十国集团经济体一致同意暂停（至少是2020年）最贫困国家的双边债务偿还，使他们能够把资源用于投资抗击疫情。 

en-us	But much more is needed now to help developing economies. 
zh-cn	但现在还需要做出更大努力来帮助发展中经济体。

en-us	If the size of the policy response is not commensurate with the scale of the crisis today, the damage will require a much larger response later.  
zh-cn	如果政策应对的规模与目前危机的规模不相称，日后就需要远比现在更多的措施来修复造成的破坏。

en-us	We need to close ranks across the world—not just governments and international institutions but also private creditors and businesses. 
zh-cn	全世界必须紧密团结起来，不仅仅是政府和国际机构，还有私人债权人和企业。 

en-us	Collectively, we must mobilize our boldest response ever to overcome the worst crisis in generations.  
zh-cn	我们必须团结一致，拿出我们最大胆的对策来克服几代人以来最严重的危机。

en-us	It is still within the global community’s power to avert the pandemic’s most dire potential outcomes—but we must act decisively now to contain the harm and lay the foundation for a robust recovery.
zh-cn	国际社会仍有力量扭转新冠肺炎大流行可能带来的最严重的后果，但我们必须立刻果断采取行动遏制疫情造成的破坏，为实现强劲复苏奠定基础。