en-us	COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Drives Sub-Saharan Africa Toward First Recession in 25 Years 
zh-cn	新冠疫情将撒哈拉以南非洲推向25年来首次经济衰退  

en-us	WASHINGTON, April 9, 2020—Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been significantly impacted by the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and is forecast to fall sharply from 2.4% in 2019 to -2.1 to -5.1% in 2020, the first recession in the region over the past 25 years, according to the latest Africa’s Pulse, the World Bank’s twice-yearly economic update for the region. 
zh-cn	2020年4月9日，华盛顿：撒哈拉以南非洲受到当前新冠疫情的严重影响，2020年经济增速预测将从2019年的2.4%降为负2.1%到负5.1%，25年来首次陷入经济衰退，世界银行最新撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济半年报《非洲的脉搏》称。 

en-us	“The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the limits of societies and economies across the world, and African countries are likely to be hit particularly hard,” said Hafez Ghanem, World Bank Vice President for Africa. 
zh-cn	世界银行非洲地区副行长哈菲兹·加尼姆说：“新冠肺炎大流行考验着全世界的社会和经济极限，非洲国家遭受的打击可能尤为严重。

en-us	“We are rallying all possible resources to help countries meet people’s immediate health and survival needs while also safeguarding livelihoods and jobs in the longer term – including calling for a standstill on official bilateral debt service payments which would free up funds for strengthening health systems to deal with COVID 19 and save lives, social safety nets to save livelihoods and help workers who lose jobs, support to small and medium enterprises, and food security.” 
zh-cn	我们正在动员一切可能的资源，帮助各国满足人民眼前的健康与生存需要，同时也保障更长远的生计和就业，还包括呼吁暂停官方双边债务偿还，以便腾出资金用于加强卫生系统以应对新冠疫情和挽救生命，加强社会安全网以挽救生计和救助失业工人，救助中小企业，保障粮食安全。”  

en-us	The Pulse authors recommend that African policymakers focus on saving lives and protecting livelihoods by focusing on strengthening health systems and taking quick actions to minimize disruptions in food supply chains. 
zh-cn	报告作者建议非洲政策制定者将重点放在挽救生命和保护生计上，集中力量强化医疗卫生系统，采取快速行动把对粮食供应链的干扰降到最低。

en-us	They also recommend implementing social protection programs, including cash transfers, food distribution and fee waivers, to support citizens, especially those working in the informal sector. 
zh-cn	报告作者还建议实施社会保护计划，包括现金转移支付、食物发放和费用减免，以救助公民、尤其是在非正规部门就业的公民。 

en-us	The analysis shows that COVID-19 will cost the region between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses for 2020 due to a combination of effects. 
zh-cn	分析显示，由于各种因素的综合影响，新冠疫情将使该地区2020年的产出损失达到370亿至790亿美元。

en-us	They include trade and value chain disruption, which impacts commodity exporters and countries with strong value chain participation; reduced foreign financing flows from remittances, tourism, foreign direct investment, foreign aid, combined with capital flight; and through direct impacts on health systems, and disruptions caused by containment measures and the public response. 
zh-cn	这些因素包括贸易和价值链中断，影响到大宗商品出口国和价值链参与程度高的国家；移民劳工汇款、旅游业收入、外国直接投资和外国援助减少，加上资本外逃，导致国外资金流入减少；对医疗卫生系统的直接影响，以及防控措施和公共响应造成的混乱。  

en-us	While most countries in the region have been affected to different degrees by the pandemic, real gross domestic product growth is projected to fall sharply particularly in the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa— as a result of persistently weak growth and investment. 
zh-cn	虽然该地区大多数国家都受到大流行不同程度的影响，预计该地区三个最大的经济体——尼日利亚、安哥拉和南非——的实际国内生产总值（GPD ）下降尤为严重，原因是持续的增长与投资疲软所致。

en-us	In general, oil exporting-countries will also be hard-hit; while growth is also expected to weaken substantially in the two fastest growing areas—the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the East African Community—due to weak external demand, disruptions to supply chains and domestic production. 
zh-cn	总的来说，石油出口国也受到沉重打击；但由于外需疲弱、供应链和国内生产中断，两个增长最快的地区——西非经济货币联盟和东非共同体——预计都会出现增长大幅放缓。

en-us	The region’s tourism sector is expected to contract sharply due to severe disruption to travel. 
zh-cn	由于严格的旅行限制，预计该地区旅游业会出现急剧收缩。 

en-us	The COVID-19 crisis also has the potential to spark a food security crisis in Africa, with agricultural production potentially contracting between 2.6% in an optimistic scenario and up to 7% if there are trade blockages. 
zh-cn	新冠肺炎危机也有可能在非洲引发粮食安全危机，在乐观情景下农业生产有可能收缩2.6%，在出现贸易禁运的情况下收缩幅度可达7%。

en-us	Food imports would decline substantially (as much as 25% or as little as 13%) due to a combination of higher transaction costs and reduced domestic demand. 
zh-cn	由于交易成本上升和内需减少的综合影响，粮食进口会出现大幅下降（降幅可高达25%，低至13%）。 

en-us	Several African countries have reacted quickly and decisively to curb the potential influx and spread of the coronavirus, very much in line with international guidelines. 
zh-cn	一些非洲国家做出快速果断的反应，阻止新冠疫情的潜在输入和扩散，基本符合国际防疫指南。

en-us	However, the report points out several factors that pose challenges to the containment and mitigation measures, in particular the large and densely populated urban informal settlements, poor access to safe water and sanitation facilities, and fragile health systems. 
zh-cn	然而，报告指出有几个因素对防控和缓解措施构成挑战，尤其是在人口密集的大型城市非正规定居点，缺少安全供水与卫生设施，医疗服务系统薄弱。

en-us	Ultimately, the magnitude of the impact will depend on the public’s reaction within respective countries, the spread of the disease, and the policy response. 
zh-cn	归根结底，疫情影响的大小将取决于每个国家的公众反应、疫情扩散和政策应对。

en-us	And these factors together could lead to reduced labor market participation, capital underutilization, lower human capital accumulation, and long-term productivity effects. 
zh-cn	而这些因素综合起来可导致劳动力市场参与率下降、资本利用率不足、人力资本积累降低和对生产率的长期影响。 

en-us	“In addition to containment measures, we have seen that in responding to COVID-19, countries are opting for a combination of emergency fiscal and monetary policy actions with many central banks in the region taking important actions like cutting interest rates and providing extraordinary liquidity assistance,” said Albert Zeufack, Chief Economist for Africa at the World Bank. 
zh-cn	世界银行非洲首席经济学家阿尔伯特·祖法克说：“除了防控措施外，我们看到在应对新冠疫情中，各国选择了综合运用应急财政和货币政策措施，该地区很多央行采取了重要措施，比如降息和提供非同寻常的流动性援助。

en-us	“However, it is important to ensure that fiscal policy builds in space for social protection interventions, especially targeting workers in the informal sector, and sows the seed for future resilience of our economies.” 
zh-cn	但是，重要的是要确保财政政策为社会保护干预、尤其是针对非正规行业工人的干预措施留出空间，为我们经济加强未来的韧性播下种子。”  

en-us	The authors emphasize the need for a customized policy response to reflect the structure of African economies (especially the large informal sector) and the peculiar constraints policymakers currently face, particularly the deteriorating fiscal positions and heightened public debt vulnerabilities, and the overall low operational capacity to respond. 
zh-cn	报告作者强调了量身打造政策应对的必要性，须反映非洲经济体的结构（尤其是巨大的非正规行业的存在）以及政策制定者目前面临的特殊制约，特别是不断恶化的财政状况和公共债务脆弱性上升，以及应对的整体运作能力偏低。  

en-us	“The immediate measures are important but there is no doubt there will be need for some sort of debt relief from bilateral creditors to secure the resources urgently needed to fight COVID-19 and to help manage or maintain macroeconomic stability in the region,” said Cesar Calderon, Lead Economist and Lead author of the report. 
zh-cn	资深经济学家、报告作者塞萨尔·卡尔德隆说：“立即采取措施很重要，但毫无疑问仍需要双边债权人的某种债务减免，以保障防控新冠疫情急需的资源，帮助管理或维护该地区的宏观经济稳定。”  

en-us	Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic circumstances within countries and regions are fluid and change on a day-by-day basis. 
zh-cn	由于新冠病毒大流行，各国和各地区的经济形势每天变化不定。

en-us	The macroeconomic analysis in the report is based on data available by the first quarter of March 2020. 
zh-cn	本报告的宏观经济分析基于截至2020年3月的第一季度可用国别数据。 

en-us	The World Bank Group is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response, increase disease surveillance, improve public health interventions, and help the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. 
zh-cn	世界银行集团采取广泛、快速的行动，帮助发展中国家加强大流行应对，强化疫情监测，改善公共卫生干预，帮助私营部门继续运营和维持就业。

en-us	It is deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over the next 15 months to help countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery.
zh-cn	世行集团将在未来15个月部署1600亿美元资金支持，帮助各国保护贫困弱势群体，扶助企业，促进经济复苏。