en-us	Beyond the COVID-19 health emergency, a recession looms, and countries ought to take measures now to soften the longer-term impacts on hunger and food insecurity, a new FAO policy brief says. 
zh-cn	粮农组织最近完成的政策简报指出，除面临2019冠状病毒病紧急卫生事件的考验外，经济衰退也正在逐步逼近，各国应立即采取措施，以减轻对饥饿和粮食不安全的长期影响。 

en-us	Forecasts for the global economy vary in details, but all point to a historic downturn. 
zh-cn	对全球经济的各种预测虽在细节上有所不同，但都指向历史性的下滑。

en-us	The International Monetary Fund now expects worldwide gross domestic product to shrink by 3.0 percent in 2020, compared to January projections of 3.3 percent growth.  
zh-cn	国际货币基金组织（IMF）目前预测，今年全球国内生产总值（GDP）将萎缩3.0%，而一月份的预测曾是增长3.3%。

en-us	The large downturn is also expected to usher in the first outright recession in sub-Saharan Africa - where about a quarter of the population is undernourished - in 25 years. 
zh-cn	预计此次大幅下滑还将引发撒哈拉以南非洲地区25年来的首次全面衰退，在当地，约四分之一的人口面临食物不足问题。 

en-us	In the 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report, FAO analysts noted that economic slowdowns and downturns helped explain rising undernourishment levels in 65 of the 77 countries that recorded such rises between 2011 and 2017.  
zh-cn	在2019年《世界粮食安全和营养状况报告》中，粮农组织分析人员指出，在2011年至2017年间经历食物不足水平上升的77个国家中，有65个国家的情况主要因经济放缓与下滑所致。 

en-us	That underscores the risk of adverse hunger trends ahead. 
zh-cn	这凸显了未来饥饿趋势出现进一步恶化的风险。 

en-us	The new FAO Policy Brief offers an analysis of food supply data since 1995, which is linked to FAO's statistical development of the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) indicator, and correlates them to past local economic trends in countries that are net food importers. 
zh-cn	新的简报分析了1995年以来的粮食供应数据，并将此数据与粮农组织食物不足发生率指标的历史统计数据和粮食净进口国的当地历史经济趋势建立了关联。 

en-us	It notes that in the absence of timely and effective policies, millions of people are likely to join the ranks of the hungry as a result of the COVID-19-triggered recession.  
zh-cn	简报指出，如果缺乏及时有效的政策，新冠疫情引发的衰退可能导致数千万人陷入饥饿。 

en-us	That number will vary according to the severity of economic contractions, ranging from 14.4 million to 38.2 million people,  
zh-cn	这一数字会随经济萎缩的严重程度而有所不同，从1440万到3820万不等。 

en-us	or even 80.3 million should there be a truly devastating contraction of 10 percentage points in all 101 net food-importing countries' GDP growth. 
zh-cn	如果101个粮食净进口国的国内生产总值增长下滑10个百分点，经济遭到实质性破坏，这一数字甚至会高达8030万。 

en-us	The Policy Brief warns that the actual outcome could be worse if current inequalities in access to food are worsened.  
zh-cn	简报警告，如果当前的粮食获取不平等状况恶化，实际结果可能会更糟。 

en-us	It includes scenarios and methodology and a technical note was developed and published simultaneously to explain those aspects in further detail. 
zh-cn	政策简报中还包含了情景和方法论介绍，另有一份技术说明进一步提供了详细解释。 

en-us	"The Policy Brief offers evidence in favor of making hunger reduction a priority of the economic stimulus measures to address COVID-19," says Marco V. Sánchez, Deputy-Director of FAO's Agricultural Development Economics Division. 
zh-cn	粮农组织农业发展经济司副司长MarcoVSánchez说：这份政策简报中的证据表明，在采取经济刺激举措应对新冠疫情时，应把减少饥饿作为优先重点。 " 

en-us	Safeguarding trade and food supply chains and promoting social protection to ensure food access 
zh-cn	保障贸易和粮食供应链通畅，提升社会保障措施，确保食物获取 

en-us	As the world is not facing food shortages, FAO is urging that countries do their best to keep trade flowing and food supply chains alive and increase agricultural output during the international health crisis.  
zh-cn	由于全球并未面临粮食短缺，粮农组织敦促各国尽最大努力在这场国际卫生危机期间维持贸易畅通和粮食供应链的正常运转，并增加农业产量。 

en-us	The large-scale fiscal and monetary responses that governments are crafting to respond to the expected blow to economic growth, represent an opportunity to tackle the longstanding issues in many middle and low-income countries of inequality in accessing healthy food. 
zh-cn	针对预计中的经济增长冲击，各国政府相继出台大规模的财政和货币应对措施，这也为众多中低收入国家解决长期存在的健康食物获取不平等问题提供了机会。 

en-us	Cash and in-kind transfers, new credit lines for key actors in food systems, safety nets, income support, distribution programmes such as food banks, and continuing school-feeding delivery, should be directed to the most vulnerable and poorest people.  
zh-cn	现金和实物补助、粮食系统关键行动方新增信贷额度、安全网、收入支持、食物银行等分配计划以及持续发放校餐等举措应面向最弱势、最贫困的人群。 

en-us	Such targeting, the brief enjoins, will also maximize the effect that public resource outlays have on keeping demand more dynamic and safeguarding people from falling into chronically weak dependencies that can last for years. 
zh-cn	简报坦言，此类针对性措施还能最大限度地发挥公共支出资源的效用，帮助维持动态化的需求，并防止民众形成长期依赖。长期依赖一旦出现，可能数年难以扭转。

en-us	There are encouraging examples of "stimulus for food" initiatives in low and middle-income countries  
zh-cn	中低收入国家也采取了鼓舞人心的刺激举措来确保粮食获取。 

en-us	- at least 106 countries have introduced or adapted social protection measures in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a real-time review of social protection policy measures from the World Bank and the International Labour Organization - although the ability of African countries to deploy cash transfers has so far been weak. 
zh-cn	根据世界银行和国际劳工组织对社会保障政策的实时审查，至少有106个国家在新冠疫情下引入或调整了社会保障措施，尽管非洲国家发放现金补助的能力迄今较为薄弱。 

en-us	International cooperation and assistance is needed to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries, and this can be linked to recipient countries reallocating more of their own resources to achieve the desired objectives and avoiding the highly adverse outcome of increased inequality in access to food. 
zh-cn	需要国际合作与援助来帮助最贫穷和最脆弱的国家，在开展此类行动的同时，受援国可分配更多本国自身资源用于实现预期目标，防止粮食获取不平等加剧造成严重不利后果。 

en-us	Targeting public stimulus measures towards initiatives to bolster food access during the pandemic also offers an opportunity to build more lasting resilience into food systems to safeguard them against economic slowdowns and downturns in the future.
zh-cn	针对性的公共刺激措施加强疫情期间的粮食获取，还创造了在粮食系统中建立更持久抵御能力的机会，以保护脆弱国家免受未来经济放缓和衰退的影响。    