en-us	新冠疫情已给包括中国、欧洲和美国在内的全球价值链核心区域带来了巨大的冲击。
zh-cn	COVID-19 has struck at the core of global value chains hub regions, including China, Europe and the US.

en-us	这场疫情大流行严重影响了国际生产网络，而这种影响可能会持续数年。
zh-cn	The pandemic has severe implications for international production networks and may leave its legacy for years to come.

en-us	在过去的四十年里，世界范围内众多制造业生产都在所谓的全球价值链中展开。
zh-cn	Over the past four decades, much of manufacturing production world-wide has been organized in what has become known as global value chains (GVCs).

en-us	原材料和中间产品在全球范围内经多次运输，最终集合在另一地点进行组装。
zh-cn	Raw materials and intermediate goods are shipped around the globe multiple times and then assembled in yet another location.

en-us	这些产品将被再次出口给发达国家或发展中国家市场的最终消费者。
zh-cn	The final output is re-exported to final consumers located in both developed and developing markets.

en-us	对许多商品而言，中国是全球价值链的核心环节。
zh-cn	For many goods, China is at the heart of such GVCs.

en-us	例如，中国是高价值产品和组件的主要生产国，也是全球商品和工业产品的重要客户以及主要的消费市场。
zh-cn	For example, as a primary producer of high-value products and components, as a large customer of global commodities and industrial products, and as a major consumer marketplace.

en-us	中国还生产许多中间产品，并负责加工和装配工作。
zh-cn	China is also producing many intermediate inputs and is responsible for processing and assembly operations.

en-us	合同制电子器件制造商富士康就是一个典型的例子。
zh-cn	Foxconn, an electronics contract manufacturer, is a well-known example.

en-us	其位于中国大陆的装配厂为许多世界领先的电器公司生产产品，其中包括苹果、英特尔和索尼。
zh-cn	Its assembly plants, located in mainland China, produce for many world-leading electronics companies, among them Apple, Intel and Sony.

en-us	中国与日本、美国和欧盟构成了全球生产网络的核心。
zh-cn	China, along with Japan, the United States and the European Union, forms the very core of the global production network.

en-us	在2019年12月，新冠病毒引发的疫情在中国湖北省爆发。
zh-cn	In December 2019, infections with the then still-unknown coronavirus started in the Chinese province of Hubei.

en-us	中国政府从一月底开始实施一系列严格措施以限制人员流动，同时在全国范围内有效施行宵禁和隔离政策。
zh-cn	The Chinese authorities reacted to this outbreak by imposing severe restrictions on movements of people, effectively imposing curfews and quarantines across the country from the end of January onwards.

en-us	而这一举措势必会影响到经济，因为许多生产厂家也暂时关闭以减少人员接触。
zh-cn	This necessarily also affected the economy, as many production sites closed in order to reduce possible contact between individuals.

en-us	病毒限制措施的影响在生产数据上清晰可见，与去年同期相比，中国一月和二月的工业生产下降了13.5%。
zh-cn	The effect of virus containment measures is visible in data on industrial production in China, which has fallen by 13.5 per cent in January and February combined, compared with the previous year.

en-us	这种下跌在生产中是十分严重的，特别是以长远角度来看：无论是2002/2003年的非典爆发，还是2008/2009年的金融危机都没有造成如此急剧的生产下滑。
zh-cn	This drop in production is severe, in particular when putting it into a longer perspective: neither the SARS outbreak in 2002/2003 nor the financial crisis in 2008/2009 was associated with any such stark drop in production.

en-us	中国产量下降还与国际贸易流量的大幅缩减有关，这也表明中国在许多全球价值链的核心地位。
zh-cn	China's position at the heart of many GVCs is illustrated by the fact that the production decline is also associated with major contractions in international trade flows.

en-us	据中国官方贸易统计数据显示，按美元计价，中国一月和二月的进口较去年同期下降4%，出口下降了17%。
zh-cn	The country's imports decreased by 4 per cent in US dollar terms in January and February combined from the same period a year earlier, while exports dropped by 17 per cent over the same time period, according to the official Chinese trade statistics.

en-us	如图所示，对于纺织品、电器和电子设备等中间产品，进口量显著下降。
zh-cn	As seen in the chart, significant declines in imports are to be found among products that are used as intermediates in production, such as textiles, electric and electronic equipment.

en-us	同样，这些商品的出口也大幅下降。
zh-cn	Similarly, exports have also experienced strong decreases in these goods.

en-us	中国对世界各地区的出口都有所降低。
zh-cn	Exports from China have declined to all regions across the world.

en-us	这种出口下滑在全球都十分严重，这其中并不包含北美地区，由于中美之间持续的贸易争端，北美的贸易额已经下降了有一年多。
zh-cn	This decline has been severe across the globe, with the exception of North America, where trade was already in decline for more than a year due to the ongoing trade disputes between the US and China.

en-us	而对于奥地利、法国、德国、意大利和西班牙在内的众多欧洲国家，从中国来的商品数量也都急剧下降。
zh-cn	The picture of a steep decline in goods received from China is similar when looking at numerous individual European countries, including Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

en-us	多条全球价值链核心区域生产活动的崩盘必然会对产品价值链上下游国家的生产者和消费者产生影响。
zh-cn	The collapse in production activity at the heart of many GVCs necessarily has implications for producers and consumers in countries further up and down the products' value chains.

en-us	从中国的进口量的下降意味着重要生产零件的缺失。
zh-cn	The drop in imports from China implies that vital production parts are missing.

en-us	德国统计局有关投入产出关系的数据显示，在德国制造业中，进口投入量约占工业生产的四分之一，而其中10%来自中国。
zh-cn	A look at data from the German statistical office on input-output relationships shows that, in the German manufacturing sector, imported inputs represent roughly a quarter of industrial production. Ten per cent of all imported inputs come from China.

en-us	德国对中国中间产品进口的依赖明显，尤其在电子、计算机和纺织制造业部门。
zh-cn	This reliance on Chinese intermediates for production in Germany is particularly strong in the electronics, computing and textile manufacturing sectors.

en-us	美国最新月度总进口数据显示，与2019年2月相比，计算机和电信设备、机动车车身和拖车
zh-cn	Latest monthly data from the US on total imports shows a dramatic reduction in imports of computer and telecommunications equipment, motor vehicles bodies and trailers,

en-us	以及其他与美中全球供应链相关的产品进口量大幅减少。
zh-cn	and other products associated with US-Chinese global supply chains compared to February 2019.

en-us	不过，可以肯定的是，这一数据也部分反映了过去一年里美中贸易紧张局势的升级。
zh-cn	However, it is safe to assume that this data also partially reflects escalating tensions on trade between the US and China over the last year.

en-us	当然，要完全量化由于新冠病毒大流行造成的供应链中断所产生的影响还为时尚早。
zh-cn	It is, of course, still too early to quantify fully the effects of the supply chain disruptions due to the coronavirus pandemic.

en-us	但到目前为止，我们可以明显地看到，最初在中国出现的生产和贸易的下降将会对供应链上下游的国家产生重大影响，
zh-cn	However, it is clear by now that the initial decline in production and trade seen in China will have a strong impact on countries further up and down the supply chain

en-us	毕竟现在大多数国家也都已进行人员流动限制，以遏制病毒的传播。
zh-cn	since most of the countries have now imposed restrictions on movements to combat the spread of the virus.

en-us	对个人行动的限制导致需求下降，再加上对员工健康和安全的考虑，工厂已暂时关闭停产，而这将对整个价值链的运作产生不利影响。
zh-cn	The resulting drop in demand, due to the imposed restrictions on movements of individuals, combined with concerns about health and safety of employees has led to factory closures which will adversely affect operations of entire GVCs.

en-us	以中国为例，作为首个经历新冠疫情整个周期的国家，中国的制造商们如今必须应对双重负面后果（“二次冲击”）。
zh-cn	In the case of China, the first country to go through a full cycle of the epidemic, manufacturers now have to deal with the double negative consequences ('second shock')

en-us	首先是本国的封锁，其次是中国经济主导和参与的多条价值链上的客户需求的下降。
zh-cn	of first their own lockdown and second the drop in demand from customers further up the many value chains that its economy commands and contributes to.

en-us	如果其他全球价值链核心区域都经历类似的轨迹，那么供应瓶颈和消费者需求下降所产生的累积效应，
zh-cn	If other global GVC hubs experience similar trajectories the cumulative effect of supply bottlenecks and falling consumer demand

en-us	确实会增加全球制造业进入螺旋式下降的风险，可能会对许多跨境供应链的运营造成严重损害。
zh-cn	may indeed increase the risk of global manufacturing entering a downward spiral, possibly causing significant damages to operations of many cross-border supply chains.

en-us	这种“二次冲击”并不仅限于生产和贸易，而且也快速蔓延到了投资领域。
zh-cn	This 'second shock' is not confined to production and trade only, but is quickly spilling over to investments as well.

en-us	最近，国际货币基金组织的报告显示，新兴市场的资本外流达到了惊人的830亿美元，
zh-cn	Most recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported a staggering $83 billion of capital outflows from emerging markets,

en-us	这是有史以来最大的一次资本流出。 与此同时，提出紧急融资请求的国家也前所未有的达到了八十多个。
zh-cn	which were the largest outflows ever recorded, while at the same time an unprecedented number of more than 80 countries have requested emergency financing.

en-us	尽管一般来说外国直接投资的波动性较小，但新冠疫情将对国际投资产生重大影响。
zh-cn	While foreign direct investment (FDI) is usually considered less volatile, the impact of COVID-19 on investment is going to be substantial.

en-us	联合国贸易和发展会议在其最新预测中指出，基于主要跨国公司最新收益修订数据，2020-2021年全球外国直接投资将减少30-40%。
zh-cn	In its most recent forecast, UNCTAD estimates a 30-40 per cent reduction in global FDI during 2020-21, based on the latest earnings revisions of major multinationals.

en-us	因此，预期相较于新冠疫情造成的短期供应链中断，许多工业化经济体的需求和生产崩溃
zh-cn	Thus it is to be expected that this ‘second shock’ from the collapse of demand and production in many industrialized economies

en-us	以及从发展中国家撤资所带来的“二次冲击”会给全球生产带来更加深远的影响。
zh-cn	and the divestment from developing countries will have far more long-lasting effects on global production than the temporary supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19.

en-us	具体而言，新冠病毒对全球价值链的未来意味着什么？
zh-cn	What does COVID-19 imply for the future of GVCs more specifically?

en-us	如果想要避免全球经济长期陷于困境，联合国以及其他多边政策机构所倡导的协调一致的政策也许是摆脱迫在眉睫的经济危机最有希望的方式。
zh-cn	If the global economy is to avoid prolonged economic distress, a coordinated policy response, as advocated by the United Nations and other multilateral policy institutions, serves as possibly the most promising path out of a looming economic crisis.

en-us	然而，到目前为止，围绕当前和未来政策的讨论越来越多地要求各国对既定的经济模式进行重新评估，特别是在国际商品生产方面。
zh-cn	So far, however, the discussion around current and future policy responses has seen increasing calls for national re-examination of established economic models, in particular with respect to the international production of goods.

en-us	在许多发达国家，当权的政客们呼吁重新考虑其公司的国际生产外包方式，以避免未来的供应瓶颈，同时提高供应链的弹性。
zh-cn	In a number of developed countries, leading government politicians have called for a rethinking of their companies' approaches to international outsourcing of production, with a view to avoiding future supply bottlenecks while increasing resilience of supply chains.

en-us	例如，法国经济和财政部长呼吁欧盟各国政府重新考虑其价值链构建方法，以确保“自主”和“独立”供应。
zh-cn	For example, the French Minister of Economy and Finance has called for EU governments to rethink their approach to value chains in order to assure "sovereign" and "independent" supplies.

en-us	同时，这种观点得到了其他一些高层决策者和评论者的进一步关注。
zh-cn	In the meantime, this view has gained further traction among some of the other high-level policy makers and commentators.

en-us	这种对于“自主”和“国内”供应链的呼吁表明公司应该重新考量其生产在全球的分布。
zh-cn	These calls for "sovereign" or "national" supply chains suggest that companies ought to re-think the spread of production across the globe.

en-us	在过去，许多情况下外包是由跨国公司希望通过靠最大限度地降低成本，减少库存和提高资产利用率来优化其运营所驱动的。
zh-cn	In the past, outsourcing was in many cases driven by multinational firms' desire to optimize their operations by minimizing costs, reducing inventories and driving up asset utilization.

en-us	新冠疫情期间的状况表明，仅根据这种易于观察的经济因素做出关于生产地点的决策可能太过于简单了。
zh-cn	If anything, COVID-19 shows that it may perhaps be too simplistic to base decisions about production locations solely on such easily observable economic factors.

en-us	许多公司可能还没有通过其供应链关系及由此带来的成本来充分意识到他们在全球冲击面前的脆弱性。
zh-cn	Many companies may not fully appreciate their vulnerability to global shocks through their supply chain relationships and the costs this imposes.

en-us	毫无疑问，这将会在公司决定迁移生产或重新考虑其选择地点时所做的未来风险评估中体现出来。
zh-cn	This may no doubt be reflected in companies' future risk assessments before they decide to relocate production or when they re-consider their location choices.

en-us	然而，供应链实质性的国有化或区域化有可能进一步降低世界经济中供应商的多元性，
zh-cn	A substantive nationalization or regionalization of supply chains, however, has the risk to further reduce diversification of suppliers in the world economy

en-us	并减少发展中经济体和新兴经济体从全球价值链相关的资本流动中获益，以及进入国际市场获得人力资本和知识的机会。
zh-cn	and reduces opportunities for developing and emerging economies, especially those outside Southeast Asia, to benefit from GVC-associated capital flows and access to international markets, human capital and knowledge.

en-us	这种发展几乎肯定会给发展中国家的工业化进程造成沉重打击，并阻碍过去多年来在许多发展中国家已取得的社会经济进步。
zh-cn	Such a development will almost certainly deal a significant blow to developing countries' industrialization efforts and impede the socio-economic progress that has been recorded in many developing regions over the past years.

en-us	因此，受新冠疫情影响的全球经济链中断将会留下长期的隐患：在未来很多年里发展中国家通过融入全球价值链进行工业化的潜力将大大降低。
zh-cn	The disruption of GVCs due to COVID-19 may therefore leave as a longer-term legacy: a significant reduction in developing countries' potential to industrialize through linking into GVCs for many years to come.

en-us	新冠病毒大流行呼吁我们加大力度，加强多边决策方法，并协助各国开辟其他方式来实现包容和可持续的工业发展。
zh-cn	The COVID-19 pandemic calls for increasing our effort towards strengthening multilateral approaches to policy making and assisting countries in opening up other ways to enable inclusive and sustainable industrial development.

en-us	供应链实质性的国有化或区域化有进一步降低供应商多样性，以及减少发展中国家从经济全球化中受益的风险。
zh-cn	A substantive nationalization or regionalization of supply chains has the risk to further reduce diversification of suppliers and reduces opportunities for developing countries to benefit from integrating into the global economy.