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48033 Second, the supply shocks due to morbidity and mortality, but also the containment efforts that restrict mobility and higher costs of doing business due to restricted supply chains and a tightening of credit will affect economies leading to a reduction of economic growth. 其次，发病率和死亡率对供应产生冲击，遏制措施限制了流动性，而供应链受阻以及信贷收紧导致经营成本攀升，这些都将影响经济，导致经济增长下滑。
48034 In March, the OECD cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent, which would be the lowest level since the financial crisis a decade ago, warning that a prolonged and more intensive coronavirus epidemic could even halve this figure to a mere 1.5 percent. 3月，经合组织将其对2020年全球经济增长的预期从2.9％下调至2.4％，这是十年前爆发金融危机以来的最低水平，其还警告称，若新冠肺炎疫情长期得不到控制、加速蔓延，预期增长率甚至可能减半，跌至1.5％。
48035 Third, the demand will also fall due to higher uncertainty, increased precautionary behavior, containment efforts, and rising financial costs that reduce the ability to spend. 第三，由于不确定性增加，人们加强防护，国家采取遏制措施，以及财务开销上升导致居民消费能力下降，需求也将出现收缩。
48036 Finally, there is a significant devaluation of the exchange rate with respect to the US dollar, which will also affect the import dependent countries. 最后，货币兑美元汇率将大幅下跌，因此，依赖进口的国家也将受到影响。
48037 Global food markets are not immune to these developments. 疫情之下，全球粮食市场也无法幸免于难。
48038 However, they are likely to be less affected than other sectors that are more exposed to logistical disruptions and weakened demand, such as travel, manufacturing and energy markets (Source: Market Monitor, AMIS, March 2020). 但是，较之旅游、制造业和能源市场等更易受物流中断和需求减弱影响的行业，粮食市场所受的影响较小（来源：农业市场信息系统：市场监测，2020年3月）。
48039 But given the complexity of the food value chains and the importance of trade and transportation, these could make them extremely vulnerable. 但是，考虑到粮食价值链的复杂性以及贸易和运输的重要性，粮食市场也可能因此变得极度脆弱。
48040 While COVID-19 likely represents a deflationary shock for the global economy, reflected in early moves by the FAO Food Price Index, in the short term the real cost of a healthy diet may rise because of the increase in the cost of perishable commodities, which would have a particularly adverse impact on lower-income households and raise the price of progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. 新冠肺炎可能导致全球经济通缩，这一趋势已反映在粮农组织食品价格指数的早期变动中，但是，在短期内，健康饮食的实际成本可能会因易腐商品价格的上涨而上升，这将尤其影响低收入家庭，并增加实现可持续发展目标的成本。
48041 This effect, as shown in 2019 The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, will be most importantly in countries with high commodity-import dependence. 如2019年《世界粮食安全和营养状况》报告中所言，高度依赖商品进口的国家最易遭受影响
48042 Here, the negative effect is stronger, as a one percent increase in commodity-import dependence causes an average increase in undernourishment of 3.8 percent per year. 高度依赖商品进口的国家受影响程度更为严重，因为对商品进口的依赖程度每增加1％，就会导致营养不足率平均每年增加3.8％。