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53316 At the World Bank Group, we are in the process of putting together detailed forecasts for our Global Economic Prospects report, which will be released in early June. 在世界银行集团，我们正在为定于6月初发布的《全球经济展望》报告准备详尽的预测。
53317 The preliminary baseline scenario under consideration indicates that many developing economies are likely to tumble into outright recessions in 2020 before growth resumes next year.  酝酿中的初步基线情景显示，许多发展中国家可能在2020年跌入全面衰退，明年才能恢复增长。
53318 This grim projection assumes that things will quickly go back to normal. 这一悲观的预测假设情况会很快恢复正常。
53319 For example, it assumes that social distancing and other mitigation measures are removed within three months and that all major economies resume rapid growth in the third quarter of 2020. It also assumes that financial markets will regain stability as investor confidence is swiftly restored. 例如，预测假设保持社交距离及其他防疫措施在3个月内取消，2020年第三季度所有主要经济体恢复快速增长，并假设随着投资者信心快速恢复，金融市场将重归稳定，此外还假定在未来18个月将持续实行大规模的货币和财政支持方案。
53320 In a nutshell, it assumes that everything goes right. 总之，预测假设一切进展顺利。
53321 Even under these assumptions, the global economy would fall into a deep recession in 2020 and output of developing economies would shrink by roughly 2 percent.  即使是在这些假设下，全球经济在2020年仍会陷入深度衰退，发展中经济体的产出将收缩2%左右。
53322 This would not just mark the first contraction in these economies since 1960 but would also imply an astonishingly weak growth outcome relative to their average growth of 4.6 percent over the past sixty years. 这不仅标志着这些经济体自1960年以来的首次收缩，也意味着与过去六年平均4.6%的增长相比经济增长出现惊人的疲软。
53323 Growth outcomes could be considerably worse if just one assumption fails to materialize. 假如其中一个假设未能实现，那么增长结果还会进一步恶化。
53324 Even if three months of mitigation measures prove effective in halting the pandemic, investors and households could remain skittish or local or global supply chains may not be restored.  Households could curb consumption and businesses could postpone investments until they are confident of a robust recovery. 即使三个月的防疫措施证明对阻止疫情蔓延有效，投资者和居民可能仍会谨小慎微，本地或全球供应链未必能够恢复，居民可能抑制消费，企业可能推迟投资，等到确信强劲复苏后才肯出手，而国际旅行的恢复可能会断断续续。
53325 Under such a scenario, the hit to global output would be larger—and developing economies would end up experiencing a deeper recession that could reduce their output by nearly 3 percent.  在这样一种情景下，对全球产出的打击会更大，发展中经济体最终可能遭遇更深层的经济衰退，可能导致产出下降近3%。