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57724 这种“二次冲击”并不仅限于生产和贸易，而且也快速蔓延到了投资领域。 This 'second shock' is not confined to production and trade only, but is quickly spilling over to investments as well.
57725 最近，国际货币基金组织的报告显示，新兴市场的资本外流达到了惊人的830亿美元， Most recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported a staggering $83 billion of capital outflows from emerging markets,
57726 这是有史以来最大的一次资本流出。 与此同时，提出紧急融资请求的国家也前所未有的达到了八十多个。 which were the largest outflows ever recorded, while at the same time an unprecedented number of more than 80 countries have requested emergency financing.
57727 尽管一般来说外国直接投资的波动性较小，但新冠疫情将对国际投资产生重大影响。 While foreign direct investment (FDI) is usually considered less volatile, the impact of COVID-19 on investment is going to be substantial.
57728 联合国贸易和发展会议在其最新预测中指出，基于主要跨国公司最新收益修订数据，2020-2021年全球外国直接投资将减少30-40%。 In its most recent forecast, UNCTAD estimates a 30-40 per cent reduction in global FDI during 2020-21, based on the latest earnings revisions of major multinationals.
57729 因此，预期相较于新冠疫情造成的短期供应链中断，许多工业化经济体的需求和生产崩溃 Thus it is to be expected that this ‘second shock’ from the collapse of demand and production in many industrialized economies
57730 以及从发展中国家撤资所带来的“二次冲击”会给全球生产带来更加深远的影响。 and the divestment from developing countries will have far more long-lasting effects on global production than the temporary supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19.
57731 具体而言，新冠病毒对全球价值链的未来意味着什么？ What does COVID-19 imply for the future of GVCs more specifically?
57732 如果想要避免全球经济长期陷于困境，联合国以及其他多边政策机构所倡导的协调一致的政策也许是摆脱迫在眉睫的经济危机最有希望的方式。 If the global economy is to avoid prolonged economic distress, a coordinated policy response, as advocated by the United Nations and other multilateral policy institutions, serves as possibly the most promising path out of a looming economic crisis.
57733 然而，到目前为止，围绕当前和未来政策的讨论越来越多地要求各国对既定的经济模式进行重新评估，特别是在国际商品生产方面。 So far, however, the discussion around current and future policy responses has seen increasing calls for national re-examination of established economic models, in particular with respect to the international production of goods.